Wisla Krakow vs Wisła Płock: Prediction & Odds (7 Aug 2026)

Ekstraklasa7 August 2026

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Wisla Krakow

2–1

Wisła Płock

The model's lean: 1 · Wisla Krakow (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Wisła Płock @ 4.90 (+28 %)

1 · Wisla Krakow 49%X 25%26% Wisła Płock · 2

49%

25%

26%

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Wisla Krakow 49% · Draw 25% · Wisła Płock 26%

Match prediction: Wisla Krakow – Wisła Płock

Predicted score matrix

Wisła Płock →

Wisla Krakow →

0–05.7%

0–16.1%

0–23.8%

0–31.5%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.1%

1–111.4%

1–26.6%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.1%

2–19.6%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.7%

3–15.5%

3–23.3%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.0%

4+–13.5%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,73–1,19

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.32EV+3%

Over 2,556%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Wisla Krakow to win49%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Wisla Krakow to win49%
Over 2.5 goals56%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals56%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Wisła Płock26% probability@4.90Betfair ExchangeEV+28%
2 · Wisła Płock26% probability@4.68PinnacleEV+23%
Under 2.544% probability@2.32Betfair ExchangeEV+3%

Bookmaker	1 · Wisla Krakow	X	2 · Wisła Płock
Betfair Exchange	1.81	EV+ 0% 4.00	EV+ 28% 4.90
Pinnacle	1.79	3.68	EV+ 23% 4.68

Odds updated 7 Aug, 20:07

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 5 August — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.70 (−13%).

1+1 %

58 %48 %

1.76 → 1.79

X+9 %

32 %22 %

3.37 → 3.68

2-7 %

25 %15 %

5.03 → 4.68

Over 2,5-13 %

58 %48 %

1.95 → 1.70

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 05/08/2026 → 07/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Wisla Krakow vs Wisła Płock according to our model?

The model gives Wisla Krakow a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisla Krakow 49%, draw 25%, Wisła Płock 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.