Serbian Super League27°11 km/h

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    Mačva ŠabacMačva ŠabacLow block & direct
    1–0
    IMTIMTCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · IMT (68%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 7.50 (+32 %)

    Mačva Šabac – IMT · Serbian Super League

    1 · Mačva Šabac 15%X 17%68% IMT · 2

    Analysis: Mačva Šabac – IMT

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    Three matches, three defeats. FK Macva Sabac are floundering in the Serbian Super League, leaking goals like a sieve with an xGA per match standing at a bloated 2.6. Contrast that with FK IMT Belgrad's robust defensive figures, conceding just 0.75 xGA per match. This clash, on paper, feels less like a contest and more like a formality. FK IMT Belgrad's model-backed probability of 68% victory speaks volumes of the gulf currently separating these sides.

    FK IMT Belgrad are on a contrasting trajectory with three consecutive wins. Their attacking prowess is underscored by an xG of 1.8 per match, effectively double that of FK Macva Sabac's 0.7. Not only are they scoring, but they're doing so efficiently. Given the respective forms, a scoreline of 1-2 or even 0-1 seems probable, with the model hinting at a 56% chance of exceeding the 2.5 goals mark. However, FK Macva Sabac's defensive frailties might just push this encounter into a goal-fest.

    FK Macva Sabac, with their low defence and direct style, appear out of sync against FK IMT Belgrad's counter-attacking and crossing efficacy. Such tactics could prove ineffective against a side that has found its rhythm. With the weather forecasts conspicuously absent, there's no external factor to suppress what could become a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score at 56% also suggests a lively game.

    Given the model's evaluation, there's notable value in betting on FK IMT Belgrad to win at odds of 1.75 with Paddy Power — a 19% edge in value. For the risk-takers, over 4.5 goals at 7.5 offers a tantalising 32% edge, though the more grounded move might be over 3.5 at 3.6 with a 23% edge. FK IMT Belgrad's momentum is hard to ignore, and for the punters, following the numbers could lead to handsome returns.

    Mačva ŠabacMačva Šabac
    Form LLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #13xP/match #11Points #14
    Key players
    • Bosko VrastanovicFxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
    • Milan VidakovFxG 0.36 · xT 0.03
    • Abdulahi Sani MuhamedRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.00
    IMTIMT
    Form WDWWW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #5xP/match #2Points #1
    Key players
    • Charly Soualio KeitaFxG 0.66 · xT 0.10
    • Dušan ŽagarRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.20
    • Wendkuuni Josué TiendrébéogoLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    1 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Mačva Šabac 15% · Draw 17% · IMT 68%

    Match prediction: Mačva Šabac – IMT

    Predicted score matrix

    IMT →
    Mačva Šabac →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.5%
    0–19.5%
    0–29.1%
    0–35.6%
    0–4+4.0%
    1
    1–05.4%
    1–110.9%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.1%
    1–4+4.3%
    2
    2–03.1%
    2–15.8%
    2–25.4%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+2.4%
    3
    3–01.1%
    3–12.1%
    3–21.9%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.1-36%
    Expected goals
    1,09–1,86
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @1.75
    Over 2,556%
    @2.17EV+10%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • IMT to win68%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.19

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • IMT to win68%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Charly Soualio Keita to score26%

    Combined probability

    9%

    Fair odds

    10.62

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Charly Soualio Keita to score26%
    • Đorđe Đorđić to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    2%

    Fair odds

    40.38

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.518% probability@7.50Paddy PowerEV+32%
    • 2 · IMT68% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+28%
    • Over 3.534% probability@3.60Paddy PowerEV+23%
    Bookmaker1 · Mačva ŠabacX2 · IMT
    Paddy Power4.203.50
    EV+ 19%
    1.75
    Pinnacle3.913.25
    EV+ 28%
    1.88

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:50

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    25 %20 %

    3.82 → 3.91

    X0 %
    30 %25 %

    3.25 → 3.25

    2-1 %
    52 %47 %

    1.90 → 1.88

    Over 2,5+4 %
    46 %41 %

    2.09 → 2.17

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 06/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • FK Macva Sabac have lost 3 in a row.
    • FK IMT Belgrad come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mačva Šabac
    IMT
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mačva Šabac (1–10)
    IMT (7–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mačva Šabac
    Kosta Rakonić: 66 passningar, xT 0.03RakonićDarko Terzic: 60 passningar, xT 0.15TerzicSlobodan Sladojevic: 58 passningar, xT 0.33SladojevicKristijan Tojcic: 55 passningar, xT -0.05TojcicVladimir Ilić: 46 passningar, xT 0.08IlićĐorđe Đorđić: 43 passningar, xT 0.03ĐorđićIgor Ristivojevic: 27 passningar, xT 0.09RistivojevicMilan Vidakov: 25 passningar, xT 0.03VidakovBosko Vrastanovic: 24 passningar, xT 0.33VrastanovicIssa Kone: 22 passningar, xT 0.02KoneVladimir Rakić: 21 passningar, xT 0.02Rakić
    IMT
    Moussa Sissako: 161 passningar, xT 0.22SissakoStefan Šapić: 134 passningar, xT 0.12ŠapićVasilije Novičić: 133 passningar, xT 0.26NovičićIván Martos Campillo: 100 passningar, xT 0.47CampilloWendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo: 81 passningar, xT 0.15TiendrébéogoIsmael Casas Casado: 77 passningar, xT 0.21CasadoOgnjen Čančarević: 76 passningar, xT 0.19ČančarevićLuka Luković: 62 passningar, xT 0.67LukovićNikola Glišić: 45 passningar, xT 0.33GlišićDušan Žagar: 40 passningar, xT 0.41ŽagarVladimir Radočaj: 27 passningar, xT 0.16Radočaj
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mačva Šabac
    Kosta Rakonić: 66 passningar, xT 0.03RakonićDarko Terzic: 60 passningar, xT 0.15TerzicSlobodan Sladojevic: 58 passningar, xT 0.33SladojevicKristijan Tojcic: 55 passningar, xT -0.05TojcicVladimir Ilić: 46 passningar, xT 0.08IlićĐorđe Đorđić: 43 passningar, xT 0.03ĐorđićIgor Ristivojevic: 27 passningar, xT 0.09RistivojevicMilan Vidakov: 25 passningar, xT 0.03VidakovBosko Vrastanovic: 24 passningar, xT 0.33VrastanovicIssa Kone: 22 passningar, xT 0.02KoneVladimir Rakić: 21 passningar, xT 0.02Rakić
    IMT
    Moussa Sissako: 161 passningar, xT 0.22SissakoStefan Šapić: 134 passningar, xT 0.12ŠapićVasilije Novičić: 133 passningar, xT 0.26NovičićIván Martos Campillo: 100 passningar, xT 0.47CampilloWendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo: 81 passningar, xT 0.15TiendrébéogoIsmael Casas Casado: 77 passningar, xT 0.21CasadoOgnjen Čančarević: 76 passningar, xT 0.19ČančarevićLuka Luković: 62 passningar, xT 0.67LukovićNikola Glišić: 45 passningar, xT 0.33GlišićDušan Žagar: 40 passningar, xT 0.41ŽagarVladimir Radočaj: 27 passningar, xT 0.16Radočaj

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMačva ŠabacIMT
    Points09
    xPoints35.9
    xG per match0.71.8
    xGA per match2.60.75
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.530.14
    Playing styleMačva ŠabacIMT
    Build-up efficiency0.180.29
    Field tilt0.140.48
    xT per match0.481.3
    xTA per match1.80.97
    Won balls, offensive half1621
    Pressing intensity0.240.21
    Pressing efficiency0.230.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.33
    Entries into the box per match613
    Entries into the box against2110
    Pass completion %0.660.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.74
    Passes per match178330
    Passes against per match422277
    Switches of play per match10.317.7
    Long balls per match1733
    Set piecesMačva ŠabacIMT
    xG from free kicks0.030.04
    Corners per match2.76.5
    Corners against per match5.33.3
    xG per corner0.060.03
    xGA per corner against0.020
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.4
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.7
    OtherMačva ŠabacIMT
    Throw-in control0.530.75
    The goalkeepersKosta Rakonić (Mačva Šabac)Ognjen Čančarević (IMT)
    Saves107
    Save %53%88%
    xG prevented33%94%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mačva Šabac vs IMT according to our model?

    The model gives IMT a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mačva Šabac 15%, draw 17%, IMT 68%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.