Serbian Super League28°11 km/h

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    Mladost LučaniMladost LučaniLow block & direct
    vs
    Partizan BelgradePartizan BelgradePossession & high press
    The model's lean: 2 · Partizan Belgrade (57%)

    Mladost Lučani – Partizan Belgrade · Serbian Super League

    1 · Mladost Lučani 19%X 24%57% Partizan Belgrade · 2

    Analysis: Mladost Lučani – Partizan Belgrade

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    57% is a number that jumps off the page. FK Partizan Belgrade takes a clear model lean to prevail in this encounter against FK Mladost Lucani, a number that is mirrored in their head-to-head dominance, having secured four victories in five meetings since 2023. Yet, FK Mladost Lucani's unbeaten run in their last 7 league matches hints at a potential upset, adding a layer of intrigue to this matchup.

    FK Mladost Lucani may have a slight edge on paper this season with 7 points to FK Partizan Belgrade's 4, but FK Partizan Belgrade's playing style makes them an intimidating adversary. Their possession-focused, high-press approach could exploit FK Mladost Lucani's low defensive structure, as suggested by the xG numbers: 1.6 per match for FK Partizan Belgrade compared to just 0.9 for FK Mladost Lucani. With an expected goals tally that sits at 1.82 for FK Partizan Belgrade, they're well poised to find the net.

    The weather isn't set to be a factor here, allowing the game to unfold without external influences. The model's nod to a 1-1 or 0-1 outcome, both at 11%, suggests a tight affair on the scoreboard. But let's not overlook the historical average of 3.0 goals per meeting, pointing to a potential for fireworks, with the over 2.5 goals market sitting at a tempting 53%.

    FK Partizan Belgrade should edge this encounter with a likely scoreline of 0-1, nudging towards the under 2.5 goals line, though their head-to-head history hints at the possibility of more. The sharpest betting angle, though, lies in FK Partizan Belgrade's victory at 57% probability. Keep an eye on the odds: if your bookmaker offers FK Partizan Belgrade at better than 1.75, there may be value worth seizing.

    Mladost LučaniMladost Lučani
    Form DDDDW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #11xP/match #6Points #5
    Key players
    • Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.33 · xT -0.01
    • Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
    • Veljko KijevčaninCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
    Partizan BelgradePartizan Belgrade
    Form WDWLL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #7xP/match #5Points #10
    Key players
    • Zubairu IbrahimLWxG 0.28 · xT -0.06
    • Aleks ZekovićCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
    • Milan RoganovićRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: Mladost Lučani – Partizan Belgrade

    Predicted score matrix

    Partizan Belgrade →
    Mladost Lučani →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–110.7%
    0–210.0%
    0–36.1%
    0–4+4.2%
    1
    1–05.6%
    1–111.2%
    1–29.9%
    1–36.0%
    1–4+4.1%
    2
    2–02.9%
    2–15.3%
    2–24.9%
    2–33.0%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–01.0%
    3–11.8%
    3–21.6%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–00.3%
    4+–10.5%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.0-210%
    4. 4.1-210%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    0,99–1,82
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    –
    Over 2,553%
    –

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Partizan Belgrade to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.18

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Partizan Belgrade to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Jeferson Marinho dos Santos to score19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Jeferson Marinho dos Santos to score19%
    • Dušan Jovančić to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Mladost Lučani 0Draw 1Partizan Belgrade 4
    Goals: 2–13 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Partizan Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
    • FK Mladost Lucani are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mladost Lučani
    Partizan Belgrade
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mladost Lučani (4–3)
    Partizan Belgrade (6–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mladost Lučani
    Milan Joksimović: 167 passningar, xT 0.62JoksimovićNikola Ćirković: 133 passningar, xT 0.15ĆirkovićDušan Jovančić: 132 passningar, xT 0.18JovančićNikola Andrić: 132 passningar, xT 0.24AndrićŽarko Udovičić: 126 passningar, xT 1.06UdovičićAleksandar Varjačić: 96 passningar, xT 0.68VarjačićVeljko Kijevčanin: 91 passningar, xT 0.46KijevčaninSaša Stamenković: 79 passningar, xT 0.08StamenkovićJohn Mary Honi Uzuegbunam: 43 passningar, xT -0.1UzuegbunamVasil Tašovski: 42 passningar, xT -0.13TašovskiJovan Ćirić: 39 passningar, xT 0.2Ćirić
    Partizan Belgrade
    Vukašin Đurđević: 230 passningar, xT 0.57ĐurđevićMilan Roganović: 217 passningar, xT 0.95RoganovićMilan Vukotić: 192 passningar, xT 0.84VukotićStefan Milic: 160 passningar, xT 0.58MilicNikola Simić: 138 passningar, xT 0.55SimićStefan Mitrović: 92 passningar, xT 0.05MitrovićOgnjen Ugrešić: 78 passningar, xT 0.06UgrešićMilan Aleksić: 69 passningar, xT -0.11AleksićSamson Nwulu: 62 passningar, xT 0.11NwuluAleks Zeković: 59 passningar, xT 0.04ZekovićMiloš Krunić: 57 passningar, xT 0.06Krunić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mladost Lučani
    Milan Joksimović: 167 passningar, xT 0.62JoksimovićNikola Ćirković: 133 passningar, xT 0.15ĆirkovićDušan Jovančić: 132 passningar, xT 0.18JovančićNikola Andrić: 132 passningar, xT 0.24AndrićŽarko Udovičić: 126 passningar, xT 1.06UdovičićAleksandar Varjačić: 96 passningar, xT 0.68VarjačićVeljko Kijevčanin: 91 passningar, xT 0.46KijevčaninSaša Stamenković: 79 passningar, xT 0.08StamenkovićJohn Mary Honi Uzuegbunam: 43 passningar, xT -0.1UzuegbunamVasil Tašovski: 42 passningar, xT -0.13TašovskiJovan Ćirić: 39 passningar, xT 0.2Ćirić
    Partizan Belgrade
    Vukašin Đurđević: 230 passningar, xT 0.57ĐurđevićMilan Roganović: 217 passningar, xT 0.95RoganovićMilan Vukotić: 192 passningar, xT 0.84VukotićStefan Milic: 160 passningar, xT 0.58MilicNikola Simić: 138 passningar, xT 0.55SimićStefan Mitrović: 92 passningar, xT 0.05MitrovićOgnjen Ugrešić: 78 passningar, xT 0.06UgrešićMilan Aleksić: 69 passningar, xT -0.11AleksićSamson Nwulu: 62 passningar, xT 0.11NwuluAleks Zeković: 59 passningar, xT 0.04ZekovićMiloš Krunić: 57 passningar, xT 0.06Krunić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMladost LučaniPartizan Belgrade
    Points74
    xPoints76.3
    xG per match0.91.6
    xGA per match1.30.83
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.090.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.2
    Playing styleMladost LučaniPartizan Belgrade
    Build-up efficiency0.280.3
    Field tilt0.290.74
    xT per match0.821.1
    xTA per match1.40.83
    Won balls, offensive half2130
    Pressing intensity0.240.18
    Pressing efficiency0.210.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.27
    Entries into the box per match1217
    Entries into the box against158
    Pass completion %0.680.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.620.76
    Passes per match237411
    Passes against per match436215
    Switches of play per match12.334.9
    Long balls per match2245
    Set piecesMladost LučaniPartizan Belgrade
    xG from free kicks0.060.07
    Corners per match3.86.1
    Corners against per match6.53.4
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.530.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.64
    OtherMladost LučaniPartizan Belgrade
    Throw-in control0.680.65
    The goalkeepersSaša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)Marko Milošević (Partizan Belgrade)
    Saves223
    Save %88%50%
    xG prevented91%40%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mladost Lučani vs Partizan Belgrade according to our model?

    The model gives Partizan Belgrade a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladost Lučani 19%, draw 24%, Partizan Belgrade 57%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.