Serbian Super League23°7 km/h

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    OFK BeogradOFK BeogradPossession control
    vs
    IMTIMTPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · OFK Beograd (41%)

    OFK Beograd – IMT · Serbian Super League

    1 · OFK Beograd 41%X 29%30% IMT · 2

    Analysis: OFK Beograd – IMT

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record offers a puzzling plotline: OFK Beograd's unbeaten streak against FK IMT Belgrad, with one win and three draws in their last four encounters, seems at odds with the current form of the two teams. This small sample may suggest a psychological edge for the hosts, yet it's the visitors who have carved out a more impressive run in the league this season.

    Despite OFK Beograd's historical resilience in these matchups, they find themselves trailing in the league standings and underlying metrics. With just 8 points compared to IMT's 13, and a lower xPoints tally of 7.9 to IMT's 11.6, the numbers tilt toward the visitors. Furthermore, IMT's superior xG of 1.4 per match compared to OFK's 1.1 illustrates their more potent attack, alongside a sturdier defense with an xGA of 0.84 against OFK's 1.3.

    The stylistic clash could be fascinating. OFK Beograd's possession control contrasts with IMT's high press, potentially disrupting the hosts' rhythm and creating opportunities for the visitors. The model favors OFK Beograd slightly, with a 41% win probability, but the expected goals suggest a razor-thin margin between the sides. The most likely outcomes point to a low-scoring affair, with a 1-1 draw or a slender 1-0 victory for OFK Beograd being the top predictions.

    From a betting perspective, there's value in backing OFK Beograd considering the model's lean and their unbeaten record against IMT. With odds of 2.40 from Bet365, it's a compelling option for those who trust the hosts to maintain their psychological edge. However, the under 2.5 goals market, reflecting a 43% likelihood, aligns with the expected tightness of this encounter, casting a shadow on any anticipation of a goal-filled evening.

    OFK BeogradOFK Beograd
    Form WDLWL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #8xT #10xP/match #13Points #10
    Key players
    • Ethan HoardFxG 0.26 · xT -0.01
    • Dognimani Yacouba SiluéFxG 0.42 · xT 0.06
    • Aleksa CvetkovićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
    IMTIMT
    Form WLDLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #8xP/match #2Points #3
    Key players
    • Charly Soualio KeitaFxG 0.49 · xT 0.05
    • Tadija CojicFxG 0.28 · xT 0.11
    • Vasilije NovičićCMxG 0.24 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: OFK Beograd – IMT

    Predicted score matrix

    IMT →
    OFK Beograd →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.5%
    0–110.3%
    0–26.3%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–010.7%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.0%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.0%
    2–24.7%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–13.3%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.0-110%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,22–1,18
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,557%
    @1.70
    Over 2,543%
    @2.17

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance OFK Beograd or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.95

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance OFK Beograd or draw (1X)65%
    • Under 2.5 goals57%
    • Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals43%
    • Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score29%
    • Wendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · OFK Beograd41% probability@2.50Bet365EV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OFK BeogradX2 · IMT
    Bet365
    EV+ 2%
    2.50    		3.252.70
    Pinnacle2.342.943.04

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 05:13

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    OFK Beograd 1Draw 3IMT 0
    Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 4,2)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    OFK Beograd
    IMT
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    OFK Beograd (8–12)
    IMT (10–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    OFK Beograd
    Sergio Fernando Peña Flores: 304 passningar, xT 0.48FloresAleksej Vukičević: 211 passningar, xT 0.25VukičevićUroš Stojanović: 194 passningar, xT 0.32StojanovićVuk Draškić: 119 passningar, xT 0.15DraškićMarko Gobeljić: 116 passningar, xT 0.24GobeljićMiljan Momčilović: 114 passningar, xT 0.14MomčilovićAndre Tjay De Barr: 104 passningar, xT 0.59BarrDognimani Yacouba Silué: 69 passningar, xT 0.37SiluéMame Moustapha Fall: 64 passningar, xT 0.04FallAndrej Pavlović: 57 passningar, xT 0.08PavlovićAderoju Hameed Ayinde: 55 passningar, xT 1.43Ayinde
    IMT
    Moussa Sissako: 206 passningar, xT 0.3SissakoStefan Šapić: 189 passningar, xT 0.27ŠapićVasilije Novičić: 168 passningar, xT 0.32NovičićIván Martos Campillo: 164 passningar, xT 0.2CampilloOgnjen Čančarević: 117 passningar, xT 0.22ČančarevićWendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo: 103 passningar, xT 0.16TiendrébéogoIsmael Casas Casado: 63 passningar, xT 0.1CasadoNikola Glišić: 61 passningar, xT 0.07GlišićVladimir Radočaj: 59 passningar, xT 0.67RadočajIbrahima Kébé: 49 passningar, xT 0.05KébéJulián Javier Delmás Germán: 49 passningar, xT 0.42Germán
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    OFK Beograd
    Sergio Fernando Peña Flores: 304 passningar, xT 0.48FloresAleksej Vukičević: 211 passningar, xT 0.25VukičevićUroš Stojanović: 194 passningar, xT 0.32StojanovićVuk Draškić: 119 passningar, xT 0.15DraškićMarko Gobeljić: 116 passningar, xT 0.24GobeljićMiljan Momčilović: 114 passningar, xT 0.14MomčilovićAndre Tjay De Barr: 104 passningar, xT 0.59BarrDognimani Yacouba Silué: 69 passningar, xT 0.37SiluéMame Moustapha Fall: 64 passningar, xT 0.04FallAndrej Pavlović: 57 passningar, xT 0.08PavlovićAderoju Hameed Ayinde: 55 passningar, xT 1.43Ayinde
    IMT
    Moussa Sissako: 206 passningar, xT 0.3SissakoStefan Šapić: 189 passningar, xT 0.27ŠapićVasilije Novičić: 168 passningar, xT 0.32NovičićIván Martos Campillo: 164 passningar, xT 0.2CampilloOgnjen Čančarević: 117 passningar, xT 0.22ČančarevićWendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo: 103 passningar, xT 0.16TiendrébéogoIsmael Casas Casado: 63 passningar, xT 0.1CasadoNikola Glišić: 61 passningar, xT 0.07GlišićVladimir Radočaj: 59 passningar, xT 0.67RadočajIbrahima Kébé: 49 passningar, xT 0.05KébéJulián Javier Delmás Germán: 49 passningar, xT 0.42Germán

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOFK BeogradIMT
    Points813
    xPoints7.911.6
    xG per match1.11.4
    xGA per match1.30.84
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.240.19
    Playing styleOFK BeogradIMT
    Build-up efficiency0.320.29
    Field tilt0.580.57
    xT per match0.931
    xTA per match0.840.64
    Won balls, offensive half2730
    Pressing intensity0.210.2
    Pressing efficiency0.340.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.32
    Entries into the box per match1012
    Entries into the box against99
    Pass completion %0.740.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.7
    Passes per match326306
    Passes against per match259261
    Switches of play per match17.716.7
    Long balls per match2729
    Set piecesOFK BeogradIMT
    xG from free kicks0.070.04
    Corners per match3.35.4
    Corners against per match3.93.4
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against00.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.890.58
    OtherOFK BeogradIMT
    Throw-in control0.680.72
    The goalkeepersVuk Draškić (OFK Beograd)Ognjen Čančarević (IMT)
    Saves1314
    Save %62%78%
    xG prevented30%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins OFK Beograd vs IMT according to our model?

    The model gives OFK Beograd a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFK Beograd 41%, draw 29%, IMT 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.