DAC vs Spartak Trnava: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Slovak Super League19 September 2026MOL Aréna, Dunajská Streda18°11 km/h

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DACPossession control

Spartak TrnavaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · DAC (42%)

1 · DAC 42%X 30%28% Spartak Trnava · 2

42%

30%

28%

Analysis: DAC – Spartak Trnava

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The tension in this match centers around DAC's impressive five-game winning streak and their propensity to find the net. They have scored in each of their last eight league matches, a testament to their relentless attacking style. On their home turf, DAC win 62% of the time, which gives them a psychological edge, especially considering their historical dominance over Spartak Trnava, winning four of their last eight all-time meetings. Since 2023, the head-to-head record stands at 4W-3D-1L in DAC's favor across 8 matches. Yet, Spartak Trnava is no pushover, coming into this game with a slightly better xPoints record, indicating they may have been unlucky in translating play into points.

Despite their historical struggles against DAC, Spartak Trnava's defensive solidity should not be underestimated. With an xGA per match of 0.73, they boast a more robust defense compared to DAC's 0.95. This defensive resilience, paired with a playing style that mirrors DAC's possession-oriented approach, suggests a tactical battle in the midfield. However, the expected goals metric gives DAC the upper hand, projecting them to net 1.62 goals to Trnava's 1.27.

Given the model probabilities, DAC is favored with a 42% chance of winning, while Spartak Trnava trails at 28%. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 further hint at a tight match, but one that leans slightly towards DAC's advantage. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 55%, suggesting a higher-scoring affair is on the cards, albeit marginally.

In terms of value, DAC to win at 2.40 with Bet365 is an enticing prospect. With their current form and home advantage, they have the momentum needed to edge out Spartak Trnava. Expect a narrow victory, likely 2-1, with both teams finding the back of the net, aligning with the 58% probability for both teams to score.

DAC

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #2xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Viktor DjukanovicFxG 0.66 · xT 0.16
Damir RedzicRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.20
Ammar RamadanLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.13

Spartak Trnava

Form WWWLD

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #6xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Michal TomicRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Luka KhorkheliLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
Ivan Anokye MensahCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: DAC – Spartak Trnava

Predicted score matrix

Spartak Trnava →

DAC →

0–05.9%

0–16.7%

0–24.5%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.6%

1–111.8%

1–27.3%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.3%

2–19.3%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.9%

3–15.0%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,62–1,27

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance DAC or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance DAC or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Samsondin Ouro to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Samsondin Ouro to score21%
Marek Ujlaky to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

DAC 4Draw 3Spartak Trnava 1

Goals: 13–5 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

DAC dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
DAC come into this round on 5 straight wins.
DAC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
DAC win 62% of their home matches all-time (37 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

DAC

Spartak Trnava

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

DAC (19–2)

Spartak Trnava (14–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

DAC

Spartak Trnava

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

DAC

Spartak Trnava

The teams in numbers

Performance	DAC	Spartak Trnava
Points	16	14
xPoints	10.9	14.3
xG per match	2	2.1
xGA per match	0.95	0.73
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.21

Playing style	DAC	Spartak Trnava
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.54	0.57
xT per match	1.3	1.1
xTA per match	0.71	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	26	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.31
Entries into the box per match	15	17
Entries into the box against	12	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.7
Passes per match	370	350
Passes against per match	264	265
Switches of play per match	42.2	23
Long balls per match	49	34

Set pieces	DAC	Spartak Trnava
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	5	6.6
Corners against per match	5.3	3.7
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.5

Other	DAC	Spartak Trnava
Throw-in control	0.74	0.73

The goalkeepers	Leandro Filipe de Almeida Dornelles (DAC)	Martin Vantruba (Spartak Trnava)
Saves	12	26
Save %	86%	81%
xG prevented	53%	77%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

DAC

Fixtures, form & tips

Spartak Trnava

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins DAC vs Spartak Trnava according to our model?

The model gives DAC a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: DAC 42%, draw 30%, Spartak Trnava 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.