Skalica vs Podbrezová: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Slovak Super League19 September 202616°0,6 mm12 km/h

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SkalicaLow block & direct

PodbrezováLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Podbrezová (46%)

1 · Skalica 27%X 27%46% Podbrezová · 2

27%

46%

Analysis: Skalica – Podbrezová

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

In the four head-to-head clashes since 2023, Skalica has failed to secure a victory against Podbrezová, managing only a single draw. This small sample size suggests a pattern but weighs less than the current season's form and expected goals. Skalica's struggles are mirrored in their points tally, with only 8 compared to Podbrezová's 10, and their xPoints further highlight this disparity: 6.9 against the visitors' 10.3.

Podbrezová's strength is evident not just in their head-to-head superiority but in their overall xG metrics. Averaging 2.0 expected goals per match, they outshine Skalica's meager 0.98. Defensively, the hosts also falter, conceding an average of 2.1 xGA per game, while Podbrezová's defense is comparatively sturdier, allowing just 1.7 xGA per match.

The model probabilities lean towards Podbrezová with a 46% chance of victory, and the visitors are supported by the most likely scorelines of 1-2 and 0-1, each with a 9% probability. Skalica, profiling as a team with a low defensive line and direct play, faces a daunting task against Podbrezová's similarly direct but more efficient tactics. The expected goals tally of 1.23 for Skalica versus 1.70 for the visitors suggests the latter's attacking edge.

For those seeking value in the betting markets, Podbrezová to win at 2.20 offers a compelling angle, given their superiority in both form and statistical projection. Meanwhile, with a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams finding the net, the match leans towards a more open contest than the teams' defensive profiles might suggest.

Skalica

Form WLLLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #12xP/match #11Points #8

Key players

Adam MorongCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Erik DanielRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
Philip Obinna OnyedikaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.05

Podbrezová

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #5xP/match #5Points #6

Key players

Vincent ChylaCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Luka SilagadzeFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
Radek SilerFxG 0.55 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Skalica – Podbrezová

Predicted score matrix

Podbrezová →

Skalica →

0–05.7%

0–18.8%

0–27.7%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.7%

1–06.3%

1–111.5%

1–29.5%

1–35.4%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.0%

2–16.9%

2–25.8%

2–33.3%

2–4+2.0%

3–01.7%

3–12.8%

3–22.4%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,23–1,70

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Podbrezová to win46%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Podbrezová to win46%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ondřej Deml to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Ondřej Deml to score16%
Vincent Chyla to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Skalica 0Draw 1Podbrezová 3

Goals: 4–13 (⌀ 4,2)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Skalica

Podbrezová

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Skalica (9–15)

Podbrezová (11–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Skalica

Podbrezová

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Skalica

Podbrezová

The teams in numbers

Performance	Skalica	Podbrezová
Points	8	10
xPoints	6.9	10.3
xG per match	0.98	2
xGA per match	2.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.48

Playing style	Skalica	Podbrezová
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.33
Field tilt	0.38	0.55
xT per match	0.66	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	15
Entries into the box against	16	13
Pass completion %	0.63	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.71
Passes per match	221	312
Passes against per match	364	355
Switches of play per match	14.9	20.3
Long balls per match	27	28

Set pieces	Skalica	Podbrezová
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.08
Corners per match	5.1	6.3
Corners against per match	5.7	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.64
First touch, defensive corners %	0.47	0.58

Other	Skalica	Podbrezová
Throw-in control	0.7	0.73

The goalkeepers	Erik Riska (Skalica)	Martin Trnovsky (Podbrezová)
Saves	18	11
Save %	78%	58%
xG prevented	51%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Skalica

Fixtures, form & tips

Podbrezová

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Skalica vs Podbrezová according to our model?

The model gives Podbrezová a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Skalica 27%, draw 27%, Podbrezová 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.