La LigaColiseum, Getafe30°13 km/h

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    GetafeGetafeBalanced & physical
    vs
    Celta VigoCelta VigoBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Getafe (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Celta Vigo @ 3.52 (+12 %)

    Getafe – Celta Vigo · La Liga

    1 · Getafe 36%X 32%32% Celta Vigo · 2

    Analysis: Getafe – Celta Vigo

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Recent encounters between Getafe and Celta Vigo offer a narrow sample of just four games, where the visitors hold a slight edge with two victories compared to the hosts' solitary win. However, such a small head-to-head record does less to define the dynamics of this clash than current form and expected goals (xG) metrics. Getafe seems to have a slight upper hand here, both in points and performance metrics, boasting a higher expected points and xG than Celta, which suggests a marginal advantage on paper.

    The bookmakers, along with the model, tip the scales slightly in favor of Getafe, assigning them a 36% chance of victory. The most probable outcomes mirror a cautious affair, with 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0 as the leading scorelines, each carrying a similar probability. Both teams are balanced in style, reinforcing the prediction of a tight contest. The xG figures further underline this, as Getafe edges Celta with 1.08 to 1.02, emphasizing a predicted low-scoring game. The over 2.5 goals market sits at a scant 35%, making the under seem the more probable outcome.

    Despite Getafe's slight statistical edge, value seekers might find their interest piqued by the odds presented for a Celta away win. At 3.35 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 6% edge over the model's 32% chance of an away victory. This observation doesn't detract from the overall lean towards a tight contest but highlights a potential opportunity for those willing to back the visitors at these odds.

    In conclusion, while Getafe appears slightly more poised to secure points at home, the betting angle clearly showcases the value on a Celta victory. The odds for an away win offer a tantalizing prospect for bettors with an appetite for risk, suggesting that an upset isn't entirely off the cards despite the hosts' marginal statistical superiority.

    GetafeGetafe
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #12xT #11xP/match #17Points #15
    Key players
    • Ramon TerratsCMxG 0.22 · xT 0.18
    • Johan Andrés Mojica PalacioLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.18
    • Kiko FemeniaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.24
    Celta VigoCelta Vigo
    Form WDLLD
    League ranking xG #20xGA #19xT #20xP/match #20Points #17
    Key players
    • Alvaro NunezRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Marcos AlonsoCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Miguel RomanCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Getafe – Celta Vigo

    Predicted score matrix

    Celta Vigo →
    Getafe →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–012.6%
    0–112.1%
    0–26.4%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–012.8%
    1–113.9%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.1%
    2–17.3%
    2–23.7%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–12.6%
    3–21.3%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–10.9%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-013%
    3. 3.0-013%
    4. 4.0-112%
    5. 5.2-17%
    Expected goals
    1,08–1,02
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,1
    Under 2,565%
    @1.45
    Over 2,535%
    @3.00EV+6%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Getafe or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Getafe or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals65%
    • Mario Martín Rielves to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals35%
    • Borja Iglesias Quintás to score21%
    • Marcos Alonso Mendoza to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Celta Vigo32% probability@3.52PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • 2 · Celta Vigo32% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 2 · Celta Vigo32% probability@3.35BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GetafeX2 · Celta Vigo
    Betsafe2.422.88
    EV+ 6%
    3.35
    Betsson2.422.88
    EV+ 6%
    3.35
    Nordicbet2.422.88
    EV+ 6%
    3.35
    Paddy Power2.453.002.88
    Pinnacle2.482.87
    EV+ 12%
    3.52

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 04:33

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Getafe win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.66 to 2.48 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    40 %35 %

    2.66 → 2.48

    X0 %
    36 %31 %

    2.86 → 2.87

    2+15 %
    32 %27 %

    3.06 → 3.52

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Getafe 1Draw 1Celta Vigo 2
    Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Getafe
    Celta Vigo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Getafe (1–4)
    Celta Vigo (1–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Getafe
    Djené: 111 passningar, xT 0.15DjenéZaid Romero: 102 passningar, xT 0.15RomeroOrel Johnson Mangala: 93 passningar, xT 0.13MangalaKiko Femenia: 87 passningar, xT 0.48FemeniaRamon Terrats: 76 passningar, xT 0.5TerratsAndrés García Robledo: 75 passningar, xT 0.07RobledoJohan Andrés Mojica Palacio: 71 passningar, xT 0.35PalacioDavid Soria: 59 passningar, xT 0.18SoriaFrancho Serrano Gracia: 55 passningar, xT 0.01GraciaMartín Satriano: 36 passningar, xT 0.03SatrianoSaba Sazonov: 33 passningar, xT 0.02Sazonov
    Celta Vigo
    Marcos Alonso: 231 passningar, xT 0.29AlonsoMiguel Roman: 212 passningar, xT 0.16RomanYoel Lago: 204 passningar, xT 0.15LagoJavi Rodriguez: 175 passningar, xT 0.18RodriguezSergio Carreira: 162 passningar, xT 0.28CarreiraIlaix Moriba: 136 passningar, xT -0.01MoribaAlvaro Nunez: 134 passningar, xT 0.15NunezIonut Radu: 110 passningar, xT -0.03RaduAleix Febas: 97 passningar, xT -0.09FebasCarl Starfelt: 97 passningar, xT 0.01StarfeltJavi Rueda: 89 passningar, xT -0.03Rueda
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Getafe
    Djené: 111 passningar, xT 0.15DjenéZaid Romero: 102 passningar, xT 0.15RomeroOrel Johnson Mangala: 93 passningar, xT 0.13MangalaKiko Femenia: 87 passningar, xT 0.48FemeniaRamon Terrats: 76 passningar, xT 0.5TerratsAndrés García Robledo: 75 passningar, xT 0.07RobledoJohan Andrés Mojica Palacio: 71 passningar, xT 0.35PalacioDavid Soria: 59 passningar, xT 0.18SoriaFrancho Serrano Gracia: 55 passningar, xT 0.01GraciaMartín Satriano: 36 passningar, xT 0.03SatrianoSaba Sazonov: 33 passningar, xT 0.02Sazonov
    Celta Vigo
    Marcos Alonso: 231 passningar, xT 0.29AlonsoMiguel Roman: 212 passningar, xT 0.16RomanYoel Lago: 204 passningar, xT 0.15LagoJavi Rodriguez: 175 passningar, xT 0.18RodriguezSergio Carreira: 162 passningar, xT 0.28CarreiraIlaix Moriba: 136 passningar, xT -0.01MoribaAlvaro Nunez: 134 passningar, xT 0.15NunezIonut Radu: 110 passningar, xT -0.03RaduAleix Febas: 97 passningar, xT -0.09FebasCarl Starfelt: 97 passningar, xT 0.01StarfeltJavi Rueda: 89 passningar, xT -0.03Rueda

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGetafeCelta Vigo
    Points32
    xPoints2.81.9
    xG per match0.810.41
    xGA per match1.41.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.020.01
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.30.33
    Playing styleGetafeCelta Vigo
    Build-up efficiency0.320.31
    Field tilt0.580.56
    xT per match0.790.46
    xTA per match0.860.76
    Won balls, offensive half2423
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.340.2
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.18
    Entries into the box per match87
    Entries into the box against98
    Pass completion %0.720.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.8
    Passes per match299509
    Passes against per match330454
    Switches of play per match23.437.6
    Long balls per match3535
    Set piecesGetafeCelta Vigo
    xG from free kicks0.10.07
    Corners per match4.63.6
    Corners against per match45.6
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.070.36
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.71
    OtherGetafeCelta Vigo
    Throw-in control0.720.79
    The goalkeepersDavid Soria (Getafe)Ionut Radu (Celta Vigo)
    Saves914
    Save %69%78%
    xG prevented54%56%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Getafe vs Celta Vigo according to our model?

    The model gives Getafe a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Getafe 36%, draw 32%, Celta Vigo 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 35% and under at 65%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.