Racing de Santander vs Deportivo Alaves: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

La Liga13 September 2026El Sardinero, Santander20°18 km/h

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Racing de SantanderCounter-attacks & crosses

Deportivo AlavesCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Racing de Santander (43%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.50 (+8 %)

1 · Racing de Santander 43%X 25%32% Deportivo Alaves · 2

43%

25%

32%

Analysis: Racing de Santander – Deportivo Alaves

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Sixteen consecutive matches with a goal: that's the streak Deportivo Alaves bring to their clash against Racing de Santander. While Alaves have the points edge with 10 compared to Racing's 4, a deeper dive shows a more balanced picture. Racing's expected goals (xG) at 1.4 per match slightly surpass Alaves' 1.2, hinting at their underlying attacking potential. The model sees Racing as the more likely victor, pegging them at 43% to take all three points. This sets the stage for a closely contested match, where Racing's counter-attacking prowess could find cracks in Alaves' defense.

The expected goals for Racing (1.60) and Alaves (1.28) suggest a competitive yet slightly home-favored encounter, reflected in the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1. Despite their scoring streak, Alaves' xGA of 1.0 is only marginally better than Racing's 1.1, which hints at vulnerabilities that Racing might exploit through their crossing game. The over/under 2.5 goals leans towards more scoring at 55%, with both teams likely to find the net at 58%.

The sharpest angle here is the value on Racing's win at odds 2.42 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, which the model rates at 43% — offering a 4% edge. This suggests a calculated punt on a 2-1 home win could be worthwhile.

Racing de Santander

Form DLWL

League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #7xP/match #4Points #13

Key players

Inigo VicenteLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.33
Andres MartinCAMxG 0.80 · xT 0.19
Ivan MartinCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

Deportivo Alaves

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #4xP/match #7Points #2

Key players

Mariano DiazFxG 0.24 · xT 0.17
Toni MartinezFxG 0.38 · xT 0.13
Lucas BoyeFxG 0.33 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Racing de Santander – Deportivo Alaves

Predicted score matrix

Deportivo Alaves →

Racing de Santander →

0–05.9%

0–16.8%

0–24.6%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.6%

1–111.8%

1–27.4%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.1%

2–19.2%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.8%

3–14.9%

3–23.1%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.8%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,60–1,28

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.15

Over 2,555%

@1.94EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Racing de Santander or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Racing de Santander or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Andrés Martín García to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Andrés Martín García to score33%
Antonio Blanco Conde to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.517% probability@6.50Paddy PowerEV+8%reference odds
Over 2.555% probability@1.94Betfair ExchangeEV+7%reference odds
Over 3.533% probability@3.20Paddy PowerEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Racing de Santander	X	2 · Deportivo Alaves
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 4% 2.42	3.60	3.05
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 2.42	3.40	2.85
Betsson	EV+ 4% 2.42	3.40	2.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 2.42	3.40	2.85
Paddy Power	2.30	3.50	2.75
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 2.41	3.59	2.90

Odds updated 10 Sept, 05:37

Odds movement

1+2 %

42 %37 %

2.36 → 2.41

X+3 %

29 %24 %

3.49 → 3.59

20 %

36 %31 %

2.91 → 2.90

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.79 → 1.77

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Deportivo Alaves have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Racing de Santander

Deportivo Alaves

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Racing de Santander (7–8)

Deportivo Alaves (10–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Racing de Santander

Deportivo Alaves

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Racing de Santander

Deportivo Alaves

The teams in numbers

Performance	Racing de Santander	Deportivo Alaves
Points	4	10
xPoints	6.3	6.2
xG per match	1.4	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.12

Playing style	Racing de Santander	Deportivo Alaves
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.44	0.39
xT per match	1	1.1
xTA per match	1.2	0.8
Won balls, offensive half	21	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.22
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.66
Passes per match	335	270
Passes against per match	384	361
Switches of play per match	9	18
Long balls per match	19	27

Set pieces	Racing de Santander	Deportivo Alaves
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	5.7	5.2
Corners against per match	9.2	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.27	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.55

Other	Racing de Santander	Deportivo Alaves
Throw-in control	0.68	0.75

The goalkeepers	Julen Agirrezabala (Racing de Santander)	Antonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)
Saves	18	13
Save %	69%	81%
xG prevented	47%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Racing de Santander vs Deportivo Alaves according to our model?

The model gives Racing de Santander a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Racing de Santander 43%, draw 25%, Deportivo Alaves 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.