01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance CD Tenerife or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Segunda División14°8 km/h
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CD TenerifeLow block & directvs
Sporting GijónPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · CD Tenerife (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sporting Gijón @ 3.41 (+6 %)
CD Tenerife – Sporting Gijón · Segunda División
1 · CD Tenerife 37%X 32%31% Sporting Gijón · 2
37%
32%
31%
Analysis: CD Tenerife – Sporting Gijón
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
CD Tenerife's defensive stance could be the decisive factor when they face Sporting Gijón. With the hosts allowing fewer expected goals against (xGA) per match at 1.4 compared to Gijón’s 1.8, their low defensive and direct playing style might just blunt the visitors’ possession-based approach. The numbers suggest a close battle with Tenerife slightly more favored, a reflection of both their style and the home advantage.
While the model leans towards Tenerife with a 37% win probability, it also pegs a draw at 32%, and the visitors' win at 31%. This narrow margin is echoed in the most likely scorelines: 1-1 at 14%, and 1-0 at 12%. Expected goals underline a similarly tight contest, with Tenerife at 1.17 and Gijón close behind at 1.06. The over 2.5 goals chance sits at just 39%, pointing to a game that could see fewer goals, with both teams to score at 46%.
Despite Tenerife's recent struggles in head-to-head encounters against Gijón, winning only once in their last four meetings, this small sample carries less weight than their current form. Their ability to edge Gijón in points and xPoints this season underscores a competitive edge. Still, Gijón’s marginally better xG per match at 0.57 hints they possess an offensive threat that could disrupt Tenerife’s defensive play.
The smart money here may lie in backing the home side, given their model edge and solid defensive stats. Bet365 offers CD Tenerife to win at 2.75, presenting potential value given the model's lean. While a 1-0 result might be the cautious prediction, the numbers do not rule out a 1-1 draw. The under 2.5 goals feels like the safer wager, given the odds and expected game tempo.
CD TenerifeForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #21xGA #16xT #15xP/match #20Points #4
Key players
- Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.08 · xT -0.01
- David RodriguezLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
- José León BernalCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Sporting GijónForm LWWWD
League ranking xG #17xGA #20xT #20xP/match #21Points #18
Key players
- Juan OteroFxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
- Jonathan DubasinRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.06
- Manuel Rodríguez PazFxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: CD Tenerife – Sporting Gijón
Predicted score matrix
Sporting Gijón →
CD Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.1%
0–111.0%
0–26.1%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–012.1%
1–113.7%
1–27.1%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–07.3%
2–17.8%
2–24.2%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–02.9%
3–13.0%
3–21.6%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-111%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,17–1,06
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
@1.61
Over 2,539%
@2.32
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance CD Tenerife or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Youssouf Diarra to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Juan Ferney Otero Tovar to score20%
- Alexandre Corredera Alardi to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sporting Gijón31% probability@3.41PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- 2 · Sporting Gijón31% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 2 · Sporting Gijón31% probability@3.35BetssonEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · CD Tenerife | X | 2 · Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.05 | EV+ 5% 3.35 |
| Betsson | 2.15 | 3.05 | EV+ 5% 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.05 | EV+ 5% 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22 | EV+ 4% 3.22 | EV+ 6% 3.41 |
Odds updated 26 Aug, 12:42
Odds movement
1+6 %
46 %41 %
2.10 → 2.22
X-1 %
32 %27 %
3.26 → 3.22
2-8 %
30 %25 %
3.69 → 3.41
Over 2,50 %
43 %38 %
2.31 → 2.32
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCD Tenerife 1Draw 1Sporting Gijón 2
Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
CD Tenerife
Sporting Gijón
CD Tenerife (3–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
CD Tenerife
Sporting Gijón
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
CD Tenerife
Sporting Gijón
The teams in numbers
| Performance | CD Tenerife | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 0.38 | 0.57 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | CD Tenerife | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.59 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.39 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 5 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 231 | 378 |
| Passes against per match | 490 | 274 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.7 | 28.1 |
| Long balls per match | 46 | 31 |
| Set pieces | CD Tenerife | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 1 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.75 |
| Other | CD Tenerife | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.48 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife) | Ruben Yanez (Sporting Gijón) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Save % | 80% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 71% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins CD Tenerife vs Sporting Gijón according to our model?
The model gives CD Tenerife a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Tenerife 37%, draw 32%, Sporting Gijón 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.