Girona vs Las Palmas: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Segunda División29 August 202623°26 km/h

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GironaPossession & high press

Las PalmasPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Girona (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Las Palmas @ 4.89 (+49 %)

1 · Girona 43%X 27%30% Las Palmas · 2

43%

27%

30%

Analysis: Girona – Las Palmas

Erik Lindberg · 27 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Las Palmas have six points compared to Girona's one, but the hosts hold a slight edge in expected goals per match, registering 1.4 versus 1.1 for the visitors. Despite the points disparity, Girona’s goal creation stats offer a hint of potential, especially considering their stronger xPoints profile. Still, both teams embrace a possession-focused style, which often leads to tightly contested matches.

Head-to-head data is sparse, so current form and expected goals are more telling. Girona's xGA of 1.0 per match suggests they have a marginally sturdier defense compared to Las Palmas, who concede 1.1 xGA per match. This could tilt the balance in a game where the model's most likely scorelines are tight affairs like 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (11%). With under 2.5 goals predicted at 57% likelihood, don't expect a flurry of scoring chances.

For punters seeking value, the away win price of 4.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a tempting proposition. The model assesses Las Palmas at a 30% chance to win, providing a significant 43% betting edge at these odds. While Girona's form hints at improvement, the odds on the visitors are hard to ignore for those seeking value on the betting desk.

Girona

Form DL

League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #1xP/match #13Points #17

Key players

Abel RuizFxG 0.28 · xT -0.08
Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Alejandro FrancesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.40

Las Palmas

Form WLDWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #8xP/match #16Points #1

Key players

Manu FusterCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.28
Jesé Rodríguez RuizFxG 0.28 · xT 0.07
Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Girona – Las Palmas

Predicted score matrix

Las Palmas →

Girona →

0–09.3%

0–19.7%

0–25.7%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.8%

1–011.1%

1–113.4%

1–27.3%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.4%

2–18.3%

2–24.7%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.1%

3–13.6%

3–22.0%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.5%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,13

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@2.04EV+10%

Over 2,543%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Girona or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Girona or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Vladyslav Vanat to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Vladyslav Vanat to score30%
Enzo Lilian Marin Loiodice to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Las Palmas30% probability@4.89PinnacleEV+49%reference odds
2 · Las Palmas30% probability@4.60BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
2 · Las Palmas30% probability@4.60BetssonEV+40%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Girona	X	2 · Las Palmas
Betsafe	1.70	3.45	EV+ 40% 4.60
Betsson	1.70	3.45	EV+ 40% 4.60
Nordicbet	1.70	3.45	EV+ 40% 4.60
Pinnacle	1.72	3.69	EV+ 49% 4.89

Odds updated 28 Aug, 12:27

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 1.94 to 1.81 (−7%).

1+4 %

60 %50 %

1.65 → 1.72

X-4 %

30 %20 %

3.84 → 3.69

2-4 %

24 %14 %

5.11 → 4.89

Over 2,5-7 %

57 %47 %

1.94 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Girona

Las Palmas

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Girona (2–3)

Las Palmas (4–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Girona

Las Palmas

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Girona

Las Palmas

The teams in numbers

Performance	Girona	Las Palmas
Points	1	6
xPoints	2.6	2.4
xG per match	1.4	1.1
xGA per match	1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.51	0.13

Playing style	Girona	Las Palmas
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.27
Field tilt	0.79	0.46
xT per match	1.6	0.87
xTA per match	0.78	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	17
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.22
Entries into the box per match	18	13
Entries into the box against	6	13
Pass completion %	0.82	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.79
Passes per match	494	416
Passes against per match	272	306
Switches of play per match	37.9	20.6
Long balls per match	38	29

Set pieces	Girona	Las Palmas
xG from free kicks	0.19	0.04
Corners per match	5.9	3.5
Corners against per match	0.99	6
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0	0.5

Other	Girona	Las Palmas
Throw-in control	0.89	0.65

The goalkeepers	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)	José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas)
Saves	3	7
Save %	50%	88%
xG prevented	19%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Girona vs Las Palmas according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Girona 43%, draw 27%, Las Palmas 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.