Granada vs Mallorca: Prediction & Odds (24 Aug 2026)

Segunda División24 August 202620°14 km/h

GranadaLow block & direct

MallorcaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Mallorca (43%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Granada 28%X 29%43% Mallorca · 2

28%

29%

43%

Analysis: Granada – Mallorca

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

43% of the time, RCD Mallorca come away with the win — a clear nod from the model that the visitors have the upper hand. Yet, the expected goals tell a slightly different tale. Granada CF, despite their struggles, boast a slight xG advantage at 0.56 per match compared to Mallorca's 0.51. However, Granada CF's low defensive and direct style struggles to translate that edge into tangible points, as reflected in their solitary point so far this season.

Granada CF have shown a knack for keeping things tight at the back, conceding an xGA of just 0.54 per match, which starkly contrasts with RCD Mallorca's 1.0 xGA. This defensive discipline could be crucial in what is likely to be a low-scoring affair. The models suggest a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, at 13%, with a 0-1 victory for Mallorca close behind at 12%. The 41% probability for over 2.5 goals doesn’t inspire confidence in a high-scoring match, especially with both teams to score sitting at just 48%.

Granada CF might have a slim statistical edge in terms of expected points (1.6 versus Mallorca's 0.8), but on the pitch, Mallorca have already secured three points. The physical and balanced playstyle of RCD Mallorca makes them a tough nut to crack, and despite their vulnerability at the back, they seem better equipped to snatch a victory.

RCD Mallorca at odds of 2.62 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet looks promising, with a 13% edge according to the model. With a clear value opportunity on Mallorca to win, this stands out as the sharpest angle for bettors to exploit. Expect a tight contest, likely decided by a single goal, with a 0-1 scoreline favoring the visitors not just a possibility, but a smart punt.

Granada

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #14xGA #7xT #22xP/match #11Points #13

Key players

Jorge PascualFxG 0.47 · xT 0.01
Manu LamaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Jose Manuel ArnaizLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.04

Mallorca

Form W

League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #17xP/match #17Points #3

Key players

Antonio RailloCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Toni LatoLWBxG 0.00 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Granada – Mallorca

Predicted score matrix

Mallorca →

Granada →

0–010.1%

0–111.8%

0–27.7%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.3%

1–010.0%

1–113.5%

1–28.3%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.6%

2–17.0%

2–24.4%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.0%

3–12.5%

3–21.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,07–1,26

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

@1.52

Over 2,541%

@2.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mallorca or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mallorca or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Pablo Torre Carral to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Pablo Torre Carral to score22%
Sergi Darder Moll to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mallorca43% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
2 · Mallorca43% probability@2.45BetssonEV+6%reference odds
2 · Mallorca43% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Granada	X	2 · Mallorca
Betsafe	2.90	2.92	EV+ 6% 2.45
Betsson	2.90	2.92	EV+ 6% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.90	2.92	EV+ 6% 2.45

Odds updated 19 Aug, 02:36

Odds movement

1+7 %

35 %30 %

2.72 → 2.90

X0 %

34 %29 %

2.92 → 2.92

2-6 %

39 %34 %

2.62 → 2.45

Over 2,5+3 %

43 %38 %

2.25 → 2.32

Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Granada

Mallorca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mallorca (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Granada

Mallorca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Granada

Mallorca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Granada	Mallorca
Points	1	3
xPoints	1.6	0.8
xG per match	0.56	0.51
xGA per match	0.54	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.06	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.2

Playing style	Granada	Mallorca
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.42	0.56
xT per match	0.23	0.39
xTA per match	0.79	0.69
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.17
Entries into the box per match	2	9
Entries into the box against	8	5
Pass completion %	0.68	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.57	0.81
Passes per match	252	407
Passes against per match	442	444
Switches of play per match	23.8	10.9
Long balls per match	51	21

Set pieces	Granada	Mallorca
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	2.1	3
Corners against per match	3.1	2
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.5

Other	Granada	Mallorca
Throw-in control	0.56	0.68

The goalkeepers	Raul Lizoain (Granada)	Toni Lato (Mallorca)
Saves	2	1
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Granada vs Mallorca according to our model?

The model gives Mallorca a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Granada 28%, draw 29%, Mallorca 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.