Swedish Allsvenskan3Arena, Stockholm21°0,6 mm12 km/h

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    DjurgårdenDjurgårdenPossession & high press
    vs
    AIKAIKPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Djurgården (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · AIK @ 5.96 (+22 %)

    Djurgården – AIK · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Djurgården 57%X 23%20% AIK · 2

    Analysis: Djurgården – AIK

    Erik Lindberg · · How the predictions work

    A 57% probability. That's Djurgårdens IF's winning chance according to the model, which strongly suggests this match leans in favour of the home side. With expected goals sitting at 2.09 for Djurgårdens IF compared to AIK's 1.19, it's clear who the numbers fancy. Despite only having one more point than AIK on the table, Djurgårdens IF's xPoints (25.5) reveal a truer reflection of their capabilities, significantly outshining AIK's 17.1. The undercurrent here is a home side sitting pretty in possession and pressing high, matching AIK's style but executing it with more precision and panache.

    In contrast, the head-to-head record since 2023 tells a tale of balance with Djurgårdens IF winning two, drawing two, and losing three in a small sample of seven encounters. However, it's the current form and expected goals that carry more weight. Djurgårdens IF's xGA per match is notably lower at 1.1 compared to AIK's 1.6, underlining a more robust defensive structure.

    Djurgårdens IF opens with expectations of a 2-1 victory, a scoreline sharing a 10% likelihood with a 1-1 draw. The odds for over 2.5 goals sit at 64%, aligning with both teams' tendencies to find the back of the net — 61% anticipate both sides scoring. Yet, with both clubs pushing the possession & high press agenda, this could either lead to a thrilling open game or a tactical stalemate.

    AIK's journey to victory remains statistically improbable, yet it's precisely this scenario where the betting world could find intrigue. With odds at 5.96 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, an away win presents a value bet with a 22% edge, despite the model anchoring their chances at just 20%. It's tantalising for those willing to gamble on the unexpected in football's unpredictable theatre.

    DjurgårdenDjurgården
    Form WDWWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #4xP/match #3Points #3
    Key players
    • Bo HeglandFxG 0.31 · xT 0.30
    • Max LarssonLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
    • Kristian LienFxG 0.61 · xT 0.06
    AIKAIK
    Form WWDLW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #10xP/match #14Points #5
    Key players
    • Zadok YohannaRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.18
    • Bersant CelinaLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.28
    • Taha AyariFxG 0.20 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Djurgården – AIK

    Predicted score matrix

    AIK →
    Djurgården →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.0%
    0–14.2%
    0–22.7%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–07.6%
    1–19.6%
    1–25.6%
    1–32.2%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.8%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–05.7%
    3–16.8%
    3–24.1%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–04.8%
    4+–15.8%
    4+–23.4%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.1-110%
    3. 3.2-08%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,09–1,19
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @2.48
    Over 2,564%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Djurgården to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.00

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Djurgården to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Kristian Lien to score28%

    Combined probability

    12%

    Fair odds

    8.65

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Kristian Lien to score28%
    • Hampus Finndell to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    32.55

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · AIK20% probability@5.96BetsafeEV+22%
    • 2 · AIK20% probability@5.96BetssonEV+22%
    • 2 · AIK20% probability@5.96NordicbetEV+22%
    Bookmaker1 · DjurgårdenX2 · AIK
    Betfair Exchange1.51
    EV+ 13%
    4.90
    EV+ 16%
    5.70
    Betsafe1.544.31
    EV+ 22%
    5.96
    Betsson1.544.31
    EV+ 22%
    5.96
    Nordicbet1.544.31
    EV+ 22%
    5.96
    Pinnacle1.50
    EV+ 4%
    4.52
    EV+ 14%
    5.60

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 05:36

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    66 %61 %

    1.48 → 1.50

    X-3 %
    23 %18 %

    4.64 → 4.52

    2-3 %
    19 %14 %

    5.76 → 5.60

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Djurgården 2Draw 2AIK 3
    Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 2,1)

    Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Djurgården
    AIK
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Djurgården (33–16)
    AIK (22–24)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Djurgården
    Jacob Une: 344 passningar, xT 0.43UneMiro Tenho: 274 passningar, xT 0.23TenhoMatias Siltanen: 259 passningar, xT 0.55SiltanenMax Larsson: 222 passningar, xT 0.88LarssonHampus Finndell: 178 passningar, xT 0.35FinndellBo Hegland: 161 passningar, xT 1.33HeglandJacob Rinne: 158 passningar, xT 0.46RinneAdam Ståhl: 141 passningar, xT 0.21StåhlPiotr Johansson: 136 passningar, xT 0.65JohanssonDaniel Stensson: 133 passningar, xT 0.41StenssonPatric Åslund: 105 passningar, xT 0.29Åslund
    AIK
    Hervé Matthys: 286 passningar, xT 0.44MatthysMads Døhr Thychosen: 276 passningar, xT 2.03ThychosenDino Besirovic: 223 passningar, xT 0.44BesirovicLukas Bergquist: 214 passningar, xT 0.24BergquistSotirios Papagiannopoulos: 148 passningar, xT 0.11PapagiannopoulosWilmer Olofsson: 120 passningar, xT 0.17OlofssonAmel Mujanic: 112 passningar, xT 0.17MujanicKristoffer Nordfeldt: 106 passningar, xT 0.18NordfeldtJohan Hove: 105 passningar, xT 0.01HoveKevin Filling: 93 passningar, xT 0.55FillingAbdihakin Ali: 86 passningar, xT -0.03Ali
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Djurgården
    Jacob Une: 344 passningar, xT 0.43UneMiro Tenho: 274 passningar, xT 0.23TenhoMatias Siltanen: 259 passningar, xT 0.55SiltanenMax Larsson: 222 passningar, xT 0.88LarssonHampus Finndell: 178 passningar, xT 0.35FinndellBo Hegland: 161 passningar, xT 1.33HeglandJacob Rinne: 158 passningar, xT 0.46RinneAdam Ståhl: 141 passningar, xT 0.21StåhlPiotr Johansson: 136 passningar, xT 0.65JohanssonDaniel Stensson: 133 passningar, xT 0.41StenssonPatric Åslund: 105 passningar, xT 0.29Åslund
    AIK
    Hervé Matthys: 286 passningar, xT 0.44MatthysMads Døhr Thychosen: 276 passningar, xT 2.03ThychosenDino Besirovic: 223 passningar, xT 0.44BesirovicLukas Bergquist: 214 passningar, xT 0.24BergquistSotirios Papagiannopoulos: 148 passningar, xT 0.11PapagiannopoulosWilmer Olofsson: 120 passningar, xT 0.17OlofssonAmel Mujanic: 112 passningar, xT 0.17MujanicKristoffer Nordfeldt: 106 passningar, xT 0.18NordfeldtJohan Hove: 105 passningar, xT 0.01HoveKevin Filling: 93 passningar, xT 0.55FillingAbdihakin Ali: 86 passningar, xT -0.03Ali

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDjurgårdenAIK
    Points2625
    xPoints25.517.1
    xG per match1.91.2
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.440.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.4
    Playing styleDjurgårdenAIK
    Build-up efficiency0.370.34
    Field tilt0.590.57
    xT per match1.51.3
    xTA per match1.41.3
    Won balls, offensive half3231
    Pressing intensity0.530.54
    Pressing efficiency0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.23
    Entries into the box per match1613
    Entries into the box against1313
    Pass completion %0.830.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.76
    Passes per match441406
    Passes against per match326347
    Switches of play per match16.515
    Long balls per match2936
    Set piecesDjurgårdenAIK
    xG from free kicks0.180.1
    Corners per match7.15.4
    Corners against per match4.35
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.57
    OtherDjurgårdenAIK
    Throw-in control0.640.6
    The goalkeepersJacob Rinne (Djurgården)Kristoffer Nordfeldt (AIK)
    Saves4949
    Save %78%71%
    xG prevented54%64%
    Claims68 (91%)46 (92%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Djurgården vs AIK according to our model?

    The model gives Djurgården a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Djurgården 57%, draw 23%, AIK 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.