Kalmar FF vs Hammarby: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan16 August 2026 16:30 CESTGuldfågeln Arena, Kalmar21°20 km/h

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Kalmar FFPossession control

HammarbyPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.21 (+3 %)

1 · Kalmar FF 25%X 25%51% Hammarby · 2

25%

51%

Analysis: Kalmar FF – Hammarby

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Fifty-one percent. That's the model's bold endorsement of Hammarby IF as they travel to face Kalmar FF. The numbers paint a picture of a team in form, buoyed by a five-match unbeaten league run and historically dominant over their opponents, having won four of the last five meetings since 2023. The balance of power clearly tilts toward Hammarby. Their possession and high-press style looks set to disrupt Kalmar's desire for control.

Kalmar FF will be mindful of the slim margin the model affords them: a 25% chance of victory and the same for a draw. Their 18 points this season pale in comparison to Hammarby's 30, and while their expected points and goals are not too far behind, the reality on the pitch has been harsher. Hammarby's edge in xG and xGA per match further underscores their superiority, setting the stage for a likely away victory.

The most probable scorelines lean towards a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw (12%), followed by a narrow 0-1 win for Hammarby (10%) and a 1-2 (9%). While the model suggests a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals, historical encounters averaging 3.0 goals per match suggest a lively affair might be on the cards, even as both teams' playing styles promise a tactical battle for possession.

With Pinnacle offering under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.22 and Betsafe at 2.18, both present value bets, as the model rates the probability at 47%. The numbers suggest a close-fought match that might defy the historical high-scoring trend. For those willing to back the underdog, Kalmar FF at odds of 4.16 with Pinnacle offers a small edge. However, the probability edges, much like the game itself, favor Hammarby IF to edge this contest, likely shading it 1-2.

Kalmar FF

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #8xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Anthony OlusanyaFxG 0.37 · xT -0.03
Charles Sagoe JrLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
Charlie RosenqvistRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.11

Hammarby

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #4Points #2

Key players

Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.29
Hampus SkoglundRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Paulos AbrahamFxG 0.58 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Kalmar FF – Hammarby

Predicted score matrix

Hammarby →

Kalmar FF →

0–06.4%

0–19.6%

0–28.1%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.6%

1–06.7%

1–111.9%

1–29.5%

1–35.2%

1–4+3.1%

2–04.1%

2–16.7%

2–25.5%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.6%

3–12.6%

3–22.1%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.0-28%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,17–1,64

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.21EV+2%

Over 2,553%

@1.65

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hammarby to win51%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hammarby to win51%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Paulos Abraham to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Paulos Abraham to score24%
Markus Karlsson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.21PinnacleEV+3%
Under 2.547% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+2%
Under 2.547% probability@2.18BetssonEV+2%

Bookmaker	1 · Kalmar FF	X	2 · Hammarby
Betsafe	3.93	3.93	1.86
Betsson	3.93	3.93	1.86
Nordicbet	3.93	3.93	1.86
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 4.12	3.83	1.79

Odds updated 12 Aug, 15:56

Odds movement

1+2 %

25 %20 %

4.02 → 4.12

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.84 → 3.83

2+1 %

55 %50 %

1.76 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Kalmar FF 0Draw 1Hammarby 4

Goals: 3–12 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Hammarby dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Hammarby are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kalmar FF

Hammarby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kalmar FF (21–24)

Hammarby (36–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kalmar FF

Hammarby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kalmar FF

Hammarby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kalmar FF	Hammarby
Points	18	30
xPoints	23.2	26.8
xG per match	1.3	2
xGA per match	1.2	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.29

Playing style	Kalmar FF	Hammarby
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.35
Field tilt	0.48	0.74
xT per match	1.4	1.7
xTA per match	1.2	0.93
Won balls, offensive half	32	38
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.25
Entries into the box per match	16	20
Entries into the box against	14	9
Pass completion %	0.81	0.86
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.82
Passes per match	395	548
Passes against per match	452	320
Switches of play per match	14.4	11.3
Long balls per match	30	22

Set pieces	Kalmar FF	Hammarby
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.19
Corners per match	5	6.3
Corners against per match	5.3	2.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.61

Other	Kalmar FF	Hammarby
Throw-in control	0.6	0.72

The goalkeepers	Samuel Brolin (Kalmar FF)	Warner Hahn (Hammarby)
Saves	32	34
Save %	73%	69%
xG prevented	50%	37%
Claims	50 (88%)	67 (97%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kalmar FF vs Hammarby according to our model?

The model gives Hammarby a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kalmar FF 25%, draw 25%, Hammarby 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.