Kalmar FF vs Mjällby: Prediction & Odds (25 Jul 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan25 July 2026 17:30 CESTGuldfågeln Arena, Kalmar18°0,1 mm31 km/h

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Kalmar FF

2–1

The model's lean: 2 · Mjällby (43%)

Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.25 (+18 %)

Mjällby

1 · Kalmar FF 33%X 24%43% Mjällby · 2

33%

24%

43%

Final score

2 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% · Draw 24% · Mjällby 43%

Match prediction: Kalmar FF – Mjällby

Predicted score matrix

Mjällby →

Kalmar FF →

0–05.1%

0–17.8%

0–27.0%

0–34.0%

0–4+2.5%

1–06.1%

1–111.2%

1–29.3%

1–35.3%

1–4+3.3%

2–04.2%

2–17.3%

2–26.2%

2–33.5%

2–4+2.2%

3–01.9%

3–13.2%

3–22.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,34–1,71

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@1.95

Over 2,559%

@1.85EV+9%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mjällby or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mjällby or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals59%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.536% probability@3.25Bet365EV+18%
2 · Mjällby43% probability@2.75Bet365EV+17%
Over 4.519% probability@6.00Bet365EV+15%

Bookmaker	1 · Kalmar FF	X	2 · Mjällby
Bet365	2.38	3.30	EV+ 17% 2.75
Pinnacle	2.74	3.57	EV+ 8% 2.54

Odds updated 25 Jul, 15:52

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Mjällby win since 21 July — the odds have shortened from 2.90 to 2.54 (−12%).

1+19 %

43 %33 %

2.31 → 2.74

X-1 %

32 %22 %

3.62 → 3.57

2-12 %

40 %30 %

2.90 → 2.54

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 21/07/2026 → 25/07/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kalmar FF vs Mjällby according to our model?

The model gives Mjällby a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kalmar FF 33%, draw 24%, Mjällby 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.