Swedish AllsvenskanEleda Stadion, Malmö19°22 km/h

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    Malmö FFMalmö FF
    vs
    The model's lean: 1 · Malmö FF (62%)
    Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.66 (+3 %)
    DegerforsDegerfors

    Malmö FF – Degerfors · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Malmö FF 62%X 21%17% Degerfors · 2

    Match prediction: Malmö FF – Degerfors

    Predicted score matrix

    Degerfors →
    Malmö FF →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.3%
    0–14.2%
    0–22.4%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–08.3%
    1–19.6%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.0%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.0%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–06.4%
    3–16.9%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–05.5%
    4+–16.0%
    4+–23.3%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.1-110%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,11–1,09
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.20
    Over 2,562%
    @1.66EV+3%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Malmö FF to win62%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Malmö FF to win62%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.33

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 2.562% probability@1.66PinnacleEV+3%
    • 2 · Degerfors17% probability@5.95PinnacleEV+0%
    Bookmaker1 · Malmö FFX2 · Degerfors
    Pinnacle1.494.37
    EV+ 0%
    5.95

    Odds updated 4 Aug, 15:55

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    65 %60 %

    1.50 → 1.49

    X+1 %
    24 %19 %

    4.33 → 4.37

    2+1 %
    18 %13 %

    5.91 → 5.95

    Over 2,5-1 %
    59 %54 %

    1.67 → 1.66

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Malmö FF vs Degerfors according to our model?

    The model gives Malmö FF a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Malmö FF 62%, draw 21%, Degerfors 17%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.