Malmö FF vs Elfsborg: Prediction & Odds (26 Jul 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan26 July 2026 16:30 CESTEleda Stadion, Malmö18°0,3 mm22 km/h

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Malmö FF

1–2

The model's lean: 1 · Malmö FF (49%)

Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.00 (+4 %)

Elfsborg

1 · Malmö FF 49%X 26%25% Elfsborg · 2

49%

26%

25%

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Malmö FF 49% · Draw 26% · Elfsborg 25%

Match prediction: Malmö FF – Elfsborg

Predicted score matrix

Elfsborg →

Malmö FF →

0–04.6%

0–15.1%

0–23.3%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.0%

1–110.5%

1–26.3%

1–32.6%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.7%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–05.0%

3–16.2%

3–23.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–03.7%

4+–14.5%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,90–1,23

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.27

Over 2,561%

@1.67EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Malmö FF to win49%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Malmö FF to win49%
Over 2.5 goals61%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals61%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.521% probability@5.00Bet365EV+4%
2 · Elfsborg25% probability@4.00Bet365EV+1%
Over 2.561% probability@1.67Bet365EV+1%

Bookmaker	1 · Malmö FF	X	2 · Elfsborg
Bet365	1.75	3.70	EV+ 1% 4.00
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 2.05	3.60	3.64

Odds updated 26 Jul, 15:52

Odds movement

1+11 %

54 %44 %

1.85 → 2.05

X-5 %

31 %21 %

3.79 → 3.60

2-7 %

30 %20 %

3.92 → 3.64

Over 2,50 %

62 %52 %

1.67 → 1.66

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 21/07/2026 → 26/07/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Malmö FF vs Elfsborg according to our model?

The model gives Malmö FF a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Malmö FF 49%, draw 26%, Elfsborg 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.