Swedish AllsvenskanStrandvallen, Sölvesborg17°17 km/h

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    MjällbyMjällby
    vs
    The model's lean: 1 · Mjällby (53%)
    ElfsborgElfsborg

    Mjällby – Elfsborg · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Mjällby 53%X 23%24% Elfsborg · 2

    Match prediction: Mjällby – Elfsborg

    Predicted score matrix

    Elfsborg →
    Mjällby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–15.4%
    0–22.9%
    0–31.0%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–010.0%
    1–110.9%
    1–25.5%
    1–31.9%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.6%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.1%
    2–31.7%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–06.0%
    3–16.2%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–04.3%
    4+–14.4%
    4+–22.3%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-010%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    1,86–1,03
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @1.92
    Over 2,555%
    @1.88EV+4%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Mjällby to win53%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.15

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Mjällby to win53%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.71

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.29

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Mjällby53% probability@2.35PinnacleEV+24%
    • Over 2.555% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+4%
    Bookmaker1 · MjällbyX2 · Elfsborg
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 24%
    2.35    		3.402.96

    Odds updated 5 Aug, 04:54

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Elfsborg win since 2 August — the odds have shortened from 3.69 to 2.96 (−20%).

    1+18 %
    49 %39 %

    2.00 → 2.35

    X-2 %
    33 %23 %

    3.46 → 3.40

    2-20 %
    34 %24 %

    3.69 → 2.96

    Over 2,5+1 %
    56 %46 %

    1.86 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 05/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mjällby vs Elfsborg according to our model?

    The model gives Mjällby a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mjällby 53%, draw 23%, Elfsborg 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.