Swedish AllsvenskanStrandvallen, Sölvesborg20°18 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    MjällbyMjällbyPossession control
    vs
    SiriusSiriusBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Sirius (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · Mjällby @ 3.47 (+16 %)

    Mjällby – Sirius · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Mjällby 34%X 26%41% Sirius · 2

    Analysis: Mjällby – Sirius

    Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work

    Forty-two points to seventeen. That's the stark contrast between IK Sirius and Mjällby AIF's league standings, suggesting a clear edge for the visitors. Yet the head-to-head record tells a different tale: Mjällby AIF have never lost to IK Sirius in their last seven meetings, winning five and drawing two since 2023. But with such a small sample, it's the current form and expected goals that must take precedence in this analysis.

    IK Sirius have been a juggernaut this season, unbeaten in their last 21 league matches and scoring in 30 consecutive games. Their offensive prowess is underlined by an xG of 2.0 per match, comfortably eclipsing Mjällby AIF's 1.3. In terms of defensive stability, IK Sirius also hold the upper hand, conceding an xGA of just 1.0 compared to Mjällby AIF's more porous 1.6.

    Mjällby AIF operate with a possession-oriented style, which might give them some control over proceedings, but against the more physical and balanced approach of IK Sirius, they might struggle to convert possession into goals. The historical average of 4.1 goals per meeting paints a high-scoring picture, and with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals, goals are expected to flow, despite Mjällby AIF's control.

    As for the most likely outcomes, the model nudges towards a 1-1 draw or a narrow IK Sirius victory of 1-2. With IK Sirius' current form and the analytical indicators, a 1-2 scoreline seems the more probable outcome. However, the market offers intriguing value at 3.3 odds with Pinnacle for a Mjällby AIF victory, highlighting an 11% edge based on the model's 34% home win probability.

    While IK Sirius appear to have the edge, bettors might find some worth in backing Mjällby AIF at odds with a significant edge, considering their historical dominance in this fixture. Yet, with the weather remaining unmentioned, there's no external disruption to factor in. As such, the allure of value betting must weigh against IK Sirius' formidable form; the scales tilt slightly but not decisively.

    MjällbyMjällby
    Form DLDLL
    League ranking xG #8xGA #13xT #6xP/match #13Points #13
    Key players
    • Abdoulie MannehFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
    • Elliot StroudCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.49
    • Jeppe Kjaer JensenRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
    SiriusSirius
    Form WWWWD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #5xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Isak BjerkeboLWxG 0.58 · xT 0.34
    • Robbie UreFxG 0.63 · xT 0.05
    • Oscar KrusnellLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.33

    Match prediction: Mjällby – Sirius

    Predicted score matrix

    Sirius →
    Mjällby →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.8%
    0–16.6%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.8%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–06.7%
    1–111.1%
    1–28.3%
    1–34.3%
    1–4+2.3%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–18.4%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+1.8%
    3
    3–02.8%
    3–14.4%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-18%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,56–1,54
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.20
    Over 2,560%
    @1.67

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Sirius or draw (X2)62%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.98

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Sirius or draw (X2)62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Isak Bjerkebo to score18%

    Combined probability

    6%

    Fair odds

    16.24

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Olle Lindberg to score29%
    • Melker Heier to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    30.43

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Mjällby34% probability@3.47BetsafeEV+16%
    • 1 · Mjällby34% probability@3.47BetssonEV+16%
    • 1 · Mjällby34% probability@3.47NordicbetEV+16%
    Bookmaker1 · MjällbyX2 · Sirius
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 1%
    3.00    		3.801.93
    Betsafe
    EV+ 16%
    3.47    		3.722.04
    Betsson
    EV+ 16%
    3.47    		3.722.04
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 16%
    3.47    		3.722.04
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 11%
    3.30    		3.562.10

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 02:36

    Odds movement

    10 %
    31 %26 %

    3.30 → 3.30

    X-2 %
    29 %24 %

    3.62 → 3.56

    2+1 %
    48 %43 %

    2.08 → 2.10

    Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    7 matches
    Mjällby 5Draw 2Sirius 0
    Goals: 18–11 (⌀ 4,1)

    Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Mjällby AIF dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 4.1 goals per meeting on average.
    • IK Sirius FK are unbeaten in their last 21 league matches.
    • IK Sirius FK have scored in 30 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Mjällby
    Sirius
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Mjällby (20–20)
    Sirius (44–19)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Mjällby
    Axel Norén: 236 passningar, xT 0.62NorénTony Miettinen: 228 passningar, xT 0.62MiettinenAbdullah Iqbal: 209 passningar, xT 0.71IqbalJesper Gustavsson: 187 passningar, xT 0.34GustavssonÁki Samuelsen: 169 passningar, xT 1.4SamuelsenAbdoulie Manneh: 130 passningar, xT 0.09MannehJeppe Kjaer Jensen: 123 passningar, xT 0.79JensenViktor Gustafson: 102 passningar, xT 0.04GustafsonVilliam Granath: 94 passningar, xT 0.07GranathLudvig Svanberg: 88 passningar, xT 0.11SvanbergRobin Wallinder: 86 passningar, xT 0.13Wallinder
    Sirius
    Mohamed Soumah: 345 passningar, xT 0.28SoumahMarcus Pheiffer Lindberg: 315 passningar, xT 1.35LindbergHenrik Rönnlöf Castegren: 296 passningar, xT 0.67CastegrenOscar Krusnell: 253 passningar, xT 1.57KrusnellTobias Anker: 250 passningar, xT 0.21AnkerMelker Heier: 230 passningar, xT 0.55HeierIsak Bjerkebo: 125 passningar, xT 1.04BjerkeboOdera Samuel Onuchukwu Adindu: 88 passningar, xT 0.75AdinduCharlie Nildén: 79 passningar, xT -0.01NildénDavid Celic: 78 passningar, xT 0.12CelicSimon Sandberg: 75 passningar, xT 0.11Sandberg
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Mjällby
    Axel Norén: 236 passningar, xT 0.62NorénTony Miettinen: 228 passningar, xT 0.62MiettinenAbdullah Iqbal: 209 passningar, xT 0.71IqbalJesper Gustavsson: 187 passningar, xT 0.34GustavssonÁki Samuelsen: 169 passningar, xT 1.4SamuelsenAbdoulie Manneh: 130 passningar, xT 0.09MannehJeppe Kjaer Jensen: 123 passningar, xT 0.79JensenViktor Gustafson: 102 passningar, xT 0.04GustafsonVilliam Granath: 94 passningar, xT 0.07GranathLudvig Svanberg: 88 passningar, xT 0.11SvanbergRobin Wallinder: 86 passningar, xT 0.13Wallinder
    Sirius
    Mohamed Soumah: 345 passningar, xT 0.28SoumahMarcus Pheiffer Lindberg: 315 passningar, xT 1.35LindbergHenrik Rönnlöf Castegren: 296 passningar, xT 0.67CastegrenOscar Krusnell: 253 passningar, xT 1.57KrusnellTobias Anker: 250 passningar, xT 0.21AnkerMelker Heier: 230 passningar, xT 0.55HeierIsak Bjerkebo: 125 passningar, xT 1.04BjerkeboOdera Samuel Onuchukwu Adindu: 88 passningar, xT 0.75AdinduCharlie Nildén: 79 passningar, xT -0.01NildénDavid Celic: 78 passningar, xT 0.12CelicSimon Sandberg: 75 passningar, xT 0.11Sandberg

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMjällbySirius
    Points1742
    xPoints16.631.6
    xG per match1.32
    xGA per match1.61
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.42
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.410.13
    Playing styleMjällbySirius
    Build-up efficiency0.310.35
    Field tilt0.540.45
    xT per match1.51.5
    xTA per match1.41.2
    Won balls, offensive half3531
    Pressing intensity0.550.5
    Pressing efficiency0.250.22
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.23
    Entries into the box per match1514
    Entries into the box against1414
    Pass completion %0.810.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.77
    Passes per match430394
    Passes against per match363427
    Switches of play per match17.417.1
    Long balls per match3130
    Set piecesMjällbySirius
    xG from free kicks0.220.14
    Corners per match4.95.7
    Corners against per match4.14.7
    xG per corner0.030.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.35
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.58
    OtherMjällbySirius
    Throw-in control0.570.59
    The goalkeepersRobin Wallinder (Mjällby)David Celic (Sirius)
    Saves5248
    Save %72%72%
    xG prevented50%46%
    Claims85 (91%)80 (89%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Mjällby vs Sirius according to our model?

    The model gives Sirius a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mjällby 34%, draw 26%, Sirius 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.