Swedish AllsvenskanGamla Ullevi, Göteborg16°0,3 mm19 km/h

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    ÖrgryteÖrgryte
    vs
    The model's lean: 2 · AIK (42%)
    Best value by the model: 1 · Örgryte @ 4.50 (+49 %)
    AIKAIK

    Örgryte – AIK · Swedish Allsvenskan

    1 · Örgryte 33%X 24%42% AIK · 2

    Match prediction: Örgryte – AIK

    Predicted score matrix

    AIK →
    Örgryte →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.0%
    0–19.2%
    0–26.8%
    0–33.2%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–08.2%
    1–112.5%
    1–28.7%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.5%
    2–17.8%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-19%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,28–1,42
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    –
    Over 2,551%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance AIK or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    1.99

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance AIK or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%

    Combined probability

    31%

    Fair odds

    3.23

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%

    Combined probability

    43%

    Fair odds

    2.34

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Örgryte33% probability@4.50Betfair ExchangeEV+49%
    • 1 · Örgryte33% probability@3.13PinnacleEV+4%
    Bookmaker1 · ÖrgryteX2 · AIK
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 49%
    4.50    		4.001.71
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    3.13    		3.652.14

    Odds updated 4 Aug, 04:53

    Odds movement

    1-8 %
    34 %24 %

    3.40 → 3.13

    X-9 %
    29 %19 %

    4.03 → 3.65

    2+14 %
    52 %42 %

    1.88 → 2.14

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 02/08/2026 → 04/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Örgryte vs AIK according to our model?

    The model gives AIK a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örgryte 33%, draw 24%, AIK 42%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.