Falkenberg vs Norrby: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan15 August 2026 17:00 CESTFalcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenberg22°19 km/h

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FalkenbergPossession control

NorrbyCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Falkenberg (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Norrby @ 4.02 (+16 %)

1 · Falkenberg 47%X 24%29% Norrby · 2

47%

24%

29%

Analysis: Falkenberg – Norrby

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Eleven consecutive matches with a goal—this is the hallmark of Falkenbergs FF, a side well-versed in keeping the scoreboard ticking. Yet, facing Norrby IF, a team currently unbeaten in five league encounters, they meet a gritty opponent. Falkenbergs FF may hold the upper hand in the points table, but the expected goals data tells a more nuanced story. Both teams average 1.3 xG per match, but Falkenbergs have been slightly more defensively robust, with an xGA of 1.3 compared to Norrby's 1.5.

Falkenbergs FF's style of possession control will clash with Norrby's penchant for counter-attacks and crosses. This tactical tension suggests a game of ebb and flow, where both sides are likely to find the back of the net, as reflected by the 61% probability of both teams scoring. Historical head-to-head offers little insight, with only one match ending in a draw; thus, it holds less weight than the current form and metrics.

Norrby IF may sit behind in the standings but possess an edge in xPoints, standing at 25.6 compared to Falkenbergs' 24.2. Yet, despite these metrics, the model leans towards a Falkenbergs win with a 47% probability. The scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1 appear most likely, with a slight tilt towards a 2-1 outcome, given Falkenbergs' scoring streak and home advantage.

For those with a betting mindset, the sharpest angle lies in Norrby IF's value as an underdog. At odds of 4.02 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a notable 16% edge based on the model's 29% probability of an away win. While not a guarantee, this is a compelling value play for those willing to back Norrby's resilience on the road.

Falkenberg

Form WLWLD

League ranking xG #12xGA #9xT #14xP/match #9Points #3

Key players

Hampus KällströmFxG 0.38 · xT 0.17
Linus BorgströmRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.19
Albin AnderssonFxG 0.42 · xT 0.06

Norrby

Form DWWDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #14xT #12xP/match #5Points #13

Key players

Julius JohanssonFxG 0.19 · xT 0.14
Azeez Temitope YusufFxG 0.30 · xT 0.00
Olle BacklundRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Falkenberg – Norrby

Predicted score matrix

Norrby →

Falkenberg →

0–04.9%

0–15.8%

0–24.0%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.8%

1–07.7%

1–110.9%

1–27.1%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.1%

2–19.4%

2–26.2%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.1%

3–15.5%

3–23.7%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.7%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,76–1,33

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.22

Over 2,560%

@1.60

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Falkenberg to win47%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Falkenberg to win47%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Hugo Faya Gérard Yaya Komano to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Hugo Faya Gérard Yaya Komano to score29%
Filip Gustafsson to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Norrby29% probability@4.02BetsafeEV+16%
2 · Norrby29% probability@4.02BetssonEV+16%
2 · Norrby29% probability@4.02NordicbetEV+16%

Bookmaker	1 · Falkenberg	X	2 · Norrby
Betfair Exchange	1.13	1.09	1.10
Betsafe	1.83	3.82	EV+ 16% 4.02
Betsson	1.83	3.82	EV+ 16% 4.02
Nordicbet	1.83	3.82	EV+ 16% 4.02
Pinnacle	1.81	3.94	EV+ 10% 3.82

Odds updated 12 Aug, 09:35

Odds movement

1+2 %

55 %50 %

1.77 → 1.81

X-1 %

26 %21 %

3.99 → 3.94

2-3 %

27 %22 %

3.95 → 3.82

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Falkenberg 0Draw 1Norrby 0

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Falkenbergs FF have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Norrby IF are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Falkenberg

Norrby

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Falkenberg (34–27)

Norrby (21–23)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Falkenberg

Norrby

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Falkenberg

Norrby

The teams in numbers

Performance	Falkenberg	Norrby
Points	32	19
xPoints	24.2	25.6
xG per match	1.3	1.3
xGA per match	1.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.23

Playing style	Falkenberg	Norrby
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.4	0.35
xT per match	1.3	1.3
xTA per match	1.4	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	26	28
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.55
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	12	12
Entries into the box against	14	18
Pass completion %	0.79	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.67
Passes per match	389	287
Passes against per match	391	461
Switches of play per match	18.8	19.4
Long balls per match	34	31

Set pieces	Falkenberg	Norrby
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.14
Corners per match	4.1	4.7
Corners against per match	4.7	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.43

Other	Falkenberg	Norrby
Throw-in control	0.54	0.42

The goalkeepers	Anton Andersson (Falkenberg)	Sebastian Banozic (Norrby)
Saves	28	47
Save %	62%	67%
xG prevented	42%	49%
Claims	87 (98%)	100 (94%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Falkenberg vs Norrby according to our model?

The model gives Falkenberg a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkenberg 47%, draw 24%, Norrby 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.