Helsingborgs IF vs IFK Värnamo: Prediction & Odds (11 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan11 August 2026 19:00 CESTOlympia, Helsingborg18°1,8 mm28 km/h

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Helsingborgs IF

The model's lean: 1 · Helsingborgs IF (50%)

Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.61 (+3 %)

IFK Värnamo

1 · Helsingborgs IF 50%X 22%28% IFK Värnamo · 2

50%

22%

28%

Match prediction: Helsingborgs IF – IFK Värnamo

Predicted score matrix

IFK Värnamo →

Helsingborgs IF →

0–04.0%

0–14.6%

0–23.1%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.6%

1–07.2%

1–19.9%

1–26.3%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.4%

2–19.6%

2–26.2%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.9%

3–16.4%

3–24.1%

3–31.8%

3–4+0.8%

4+–03.9%

4+–15.0%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-07%
4.1-07%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,99–1,30

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.26

Over 2,564%

@1.61EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Helsingborgs IF to win50%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Helsingborgs IF to win50%
Over 2.5 goals64%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals64%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.564% probability@1.61PinnacleEV+3%
1 · Helsingborgs IF50% probability@2.05PinnacleEV+2%

Bookmaker	1 · Helsingborgs IF	X	2 · IFK Värnamo
Pinnacle	EV+ 2% 2.05	3.73	3.22

Odds updated 5 Aug, 04:55

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Helsingborgs IF win since 4 August — the odds have shortened from 2.22 to 2.05 (−8%).

1-8 %

47 %42 %

2.22 → 2.05

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.69 → 3.73

2+10 %

33 %28 %

2.92 → 3.22

Over 2,50 %

61 %56 %

1.62 → 1.61

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 04/08/2026 → 05/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Helsingborgs IF vs IFK Värnamo according to our model?

The model gives Helsingborgs IF a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Helsingborgs IF 50%, draw 22%, IFK Värnamo 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.