IFK Värnamo vs Östersund: Prediction & Odds (16 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan16 August 2026 13:00 CESTFinnvedsvallen, Värnamo18°19 km/h

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IFK VärnamoPossession control

ÖstersundPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Östersund (50%)

1 · IFK Värnamo 28%X 23%50% Östersund · 2

28%

23%

50%

Analysis: IFK Värnamo – Östersund

Erik Lindberg · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Östersunds FK comes into this clash with not just momentum but a statistical edge that makes them the likely choice for punters looking for value. Sitting at 50% win probability, compared to IFK Värnamo's 28%, the numbers are clear about the superiority of Östersunds FK. While a small sample size of just one head-to-head match since 2024 — which ended in an Östersunds FK victory — might not weigh heavily, their unbeaten streak in the last five league matches surely does.

IFK Värnamo, with 14 points to their name, are dwarfed by Östersunds FK's 32, a gap that echoes the difference in expected performance. The xG model projects the visitors to generate 1.48 goals to Värnamo's 1.19, reflecting a more potent offensive threat from the Östersund ranks. Even on the defensive side, Värnamo's 1.3 xGA per match falls short of Östersunds FK's tighter 1.2, hinting at potential vulnerabilities against a team that doesn't shy away from a high press.

Considering these metrics, the most likely scoreline emerges as a 1-1 draw at 13%, but the 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%) scorelines in favor of Östersunds FK are right on its tail, suggesting a leaning towards a narrow win for the away side. With the model setting the over/under 2.5 goals at a coin-flip 50%, and both teams to score at 54%, there’s an argument for goals, yet perhaps not a flood of them.

For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in backing Östersunds FK at odds of 2.5 available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a compelling 25% value edge. This isn’t a guarantee, but given the current form and statistical indicators, it's a calculated risk worth considering. If you're looking for where the smart money is, the away side is where your compass should point.

IFK Värnamo

Form LLLDW

League ranking xG #14xGA #5xT #11xP/match #15Points #15

Key players

Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.38
Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
Kai MeriluotoFxG 0.25 · xT 0.03

Östersund

Form WWDWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #5xP/match #11Points #4

Key players

Simon MarklundRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.21
Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.21
Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: IFK Värnamo – Östersund

Predicted score matrix

Östersund →

IFK Värnamo →

0–07.3%

0–19.9%

0–27.6%

0–33.7%

0–4+1.9%

1–07.9%

1–112.5%

1–29.0%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.3%

2–04.9%

2–17.3%

2–25.4%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.4%

3–02.0%

3–12.9%

3–22.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-28%

Expected goals

1,19–1,48

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.07EV+1%

Over 2,550%

@1.74

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Östersund to win50%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Östersund to win50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Jabir Abdihakim Ali to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Jabir Abdihakim Ali to score29%
Douglas Bergqvist to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Östersund50% probability@2.60BetsafeEV+30%
2 · Östersund50% probability@2.60BetssonEV+30%
2 · Östersund50% probability@2.60NordicbetEV+30%

Bookmaker	1 · IFK Värnamo	X	2 · Östersund
BetMGM UK	2.55	3.25	EV+ 24% 2.48
Betfair Exchange	1.04	1.08	1.04
Betsafe	2.60	3.45	EV+ 30% 2.60
Betsson	2.60	3.45	EV+ 30% 2.60
Nordicbet	2.60	3.45	EV+ 30% 2.60
Pinnacle	2.67	3.37	EV+ 27% 2.55

Odds updated 12 Aug, 15:56

Odds movement

1+1 %

38 %33 %

2.65 → 2.67

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.38 → 3.37

20 %

39 %34 %

2.56 → 2.55

Over 2,5+1 %

57 %52 %

1.72 → 1.74

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

IFK Värnamo 0Draw 0Östersund 1

Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Östersund are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IFK Värnamo

Östersund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IFK Värnamo (20–35)

Östersund (28–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Östersund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IFK Värnamo

Östersund

The teams in numbers

Performance	IFK Värnamo	Östersund
Points	14	32
xPoints	18.8	23.9
xG per match	1	1.3
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.27

Playing style	IFK Värnamo	Östersund
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.36
Field tilt	0.53	0.64
xT per match	1.4	1.6
xTA per match	1.5	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	35	36
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.3
Entries into the box per match	14	17
Entries into the box against	14	11
Pass completion %	0.77	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.76
Passes per match	381	427
Passes against per match	313	341
Switches of play per match	16.1	17.6
Long balls per match	34	41

Set pieces	IFK Värnamo	Östersund
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.1
Corners per match	4.5	5.7
Corners against per match	4.7	3.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.62

Other	IFK Värnamo	Östersund
Throw-in control	0.44	0.58

The goalkeepers	Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo)	Melker Uppenberg (Östersund)
Saves	45	30
Save %	61%	64%
xG prevented	41%	31%
Claims	82 (93%)	77 (90%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IFK Värnamo vs Östersund according to our model?

The model gives Östersund a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Värnamo 28%, draw 23%, Östersund 50%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.