Swedish SuperettanDomnarvsvallen, Borlänge13°17,4 mm7 km/h

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    BrageBragePossession control
    vs
    Nordic UnitedNordic UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Nordic United (39%)Soft draw

    Brage – Nordic United · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Brage 37%X 25%39% Nordic United · 2

    Analysis: Brage – Nordic United

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Nordic United FC's unbeaten streak of seven league matches stands out. With a slight edge in expected goals per match (1.5 vs. 1.4) and lower expected goals against (1.2 vs. 1.4), the visitors seem poised to maintain their form against Brage, despite the home side's possession-based strategy. The model gives Nordic United a 39% chance of winning, just slightly higher than Brage's 37%, suggesting a tight contest.

    The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 11%, but the potential for goals is significant with a 60% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. Heavy rain might dampen the goal tally slightly, yet this is already accounted for in the model's outlook. Brage’s tendency to control possession could be disrupted by Nordic United's counter-attacking and crossing approach, making the visitors' slight edge in performance metrics crucial.

    For bettors eyeing value, Nordic United offers promising odds. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering 2.65 for an away win, there’s a 2% edge according to the model's 39% probability. This makes backing Nordic United at those odds a compelling option for those seeking value.

    BrageBrage
    Form LDWLD
    League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #7xP/match #8Points #13
    Key players
    • Filip TrpcevskiFxG 0.33 · xT 0.05
    • Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.65
    • Alex MortensenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.12
    Nordic UnitedNordic United
    Form WDDDD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #5xP/match #2Points #6
    Key players
    • Aziz HarabiLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.31
    • Teo GrönborgFxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Kalipha JawlaFxG 0.63 · xT 0.00

    Match prediction: Brage – Nordic United

    Predicted score matrix

    Nordic United →
    Brage →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.8%
    0–16.7%
    0–25.5%
    0–32.9%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–06.6%
    1–111.2%
    1–28.5%
    1–34.4%
    1–4+2.4%
    2
    2–05.3%
    2–18.3%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.4%
    2–4+1.9%
    3
    3–02.7%
    3–14.3%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.8%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-28%
    3. 3.2-18%
    4. 4.0-17%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,56
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.30
    Over 2,560%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Nordic United or draw (X2)63%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.95

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Nordic United or draw (X2)63%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Elias Durmaz to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Elias Durmaz to score27%
    • Ozor Victor Okeke to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Nordic United39% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Nordic United39% probability@2.65BetssonEV+2%reference odds
    • 2 · Nordic United39% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · BrageX2 · Nordic United
    Betsafe2.463.58
    EV+ 2%
    2.65
    Betsson2.463.58
    EV+ 2%
    2.65
    Nordicbet2.463.58
    EV+ 2%
    2.65

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 15:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Nordic United win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.95 to 2.65 (−10%).

    1+12 %
    44 %34 %

    2.19 → 2.46

    X-4 %
    31 %21 %

    3.73 → 3.58

    2-10 %
    41 %31 %

    2.95 → 2.65

    Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Brage 0Draw 0Nordic United 1
    Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Nordic United FC are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Brage
    Nordic United
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Brage (33–36)
    Nordic United (29–26)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Brage
    Tobias Stagaard: 285 passningar, xT 0.65StagaardMalte Persson: 223 passningar, xT 2.7PerssonAlexander Zetterström: 165 passningar, xT 0.28ZetterströmOzor Victor Okeke: 123 passningar, xT 0.19OkekeAlbin Sporrong: 112 passningar, xT 0.45SporrongAlex Mortensen: 85 passningar, xT 0.7MortensenLasse Bruun Madsen: 83 passningar, xT 0.06MadsenNoah Östberg: 76 passningar, xT 0.16ÖstbergAnders Hellblom: 72 passningar, xT 0.55HellblomGideon Granström: 72 passningar, xT -0.01GranströmLorik Konjuhi: 72 passningar, xT 0.05Konjuhi
    Nordic United
    Elias Andersson: 329 passningar, xT 1.66AnderssonJonathan Gürsac: 221 passningar, xT 0.02GürsacMatteus Behnan: 182 passningar, xT 0.43BehnanEmmanuel Swedi: 153 passningar, xT 0.42SwediAziz Harabi: 140 passningar, xT 0.14HarabiAmar Dzevlan: 138 passningar, xT 0.28DzevlanTeo Grönborg: 129 passningar, xT 0.47GrönborgLiiban Abdirahman Abadid: 121 passningar, xT 0.11AbadidElias Durmaz: 112 passningar, xT 1.24DurmazMohammad Fazal: 105 passningar, xT 0.34FazalChristian Aphrem: 100 passningar, xT 0.22Aphrem
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Brage
    Tobias Stagaard: 285 passningar, xT 0.65StagaardMalte Persson: 223 passningar, xT 2.7PerssonAlexander Zetterström: 165 passningar, xT 0.28ZetterströmOzor Victor Okeke: 123 passningar, xT 0.19OkekeAlbin Sporrong: 112 passningar, xT 0.45SporrongAlex Mortensen: 85 passningar, xT 0.7MortensenLasse Bruun Madsen: 83 passningar, xT 0.06MadsenNoah Östberg: 76 passningar, xT 0.16ÖstbergAnders Hellblom: 72 passningar, xT 0.55HellblomGideon Granström: 72 passningar, xT -0.01GranströmLorik Konjuhi: 72 passningar, xT 0.05Konjuhi
    Nordic United
    Elias Andersson: 329 passningar, xT 1.66AnderssonJonathan Gürsac: 221 passningar, xT 0.02GürsacMatteus Behnan: 182 passningar, xT 0.43BehnanEmmanuel Swedi: 153 passningar, xT 0.42SwediAziz Harabi: 140 passningar, xT 0.14HarabiAmar Dzevlan: 138 passningar, xT 0.28DzevlanTeo Grönborg: 129 passningar, xT 0.47GrönborgLiiban Abdirahman Abadid: 121 passningar, xT 0.11AbadidElias Durmaz: 112 passningar, xT 1.24DurmazMohammad Fazal: 105 passningar, xT 0.34FazalChristian Aphrem: 100 passningar, xT 0.22Aphrem

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBrageNordic United
    Points2129
    xPoints26.230
    xG per match1.41.5
    xGA per match1.41.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.380.31
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.28
    Playing styleBrageNordic United
    Build-up efficiency0.350.37
    Field tilt0.480.51
    xT per match1.61.6
    xTA per match1.61.4
    Won balls, offensive half3129
    Pressing intensity0.550.54
    Pressing efficiency0.270.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.27
    Entries into the box per match1518
    Entries into the box against1714
    Pass completion %0.770.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.74
    Passes per match340363
    Passes against per match362410
    Switches of play per match18.417.9
    Long balls per match3331
    Set piecesBrageNordic United
    xG from free kicks0.130.14
    Corners per match5.24.2
    Corners against per match5.44.8
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.510.54
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.6
    OtherBrageNordic United
    Throw-in control0.550.54
    The goalkeepersViktor Frodig (Brage)William Eskelinen (Nordic United)
    Saves5236
    Save %63%63%
    xG prevented45%41%
    Claims120 (97%)86 (95%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Brage vs Nordic United according to our model?

    The model gives Nordic United a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brage 37%, draw 25%, Nordic United 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.