Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold: Prediction & Odds (14 Aug 2026)

Swedish Superettan14 August 2026 19:00 CESTLandskrona IP, Landskrona20°19 km/h

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Landskrona BoISPossession control

OddevoldCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Oddevold (38%)Soft draw

1 · Landskrona BoIS 36%X 25%38% Oddevold · 2

36%

25%

38%

Analysis: Landskrona BoIS – Oddevold

Oscar Nilsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

With a razor-thin margin separating them in the model probabilities, IK Oddevold's 38% chance of victory edges out Landskrona BoIS at 36%, setting the stage for a clash where small advantages could tip the balance. Despite Landskrona's historical edge in head-to-head encounters, boasting three wins and two draws in their last five meetings, the form book and underlying numbers suggest a departure from past dominance.

Landskrona BoIS have been efficient in possession, but their xPoints of 23.8 lag behind their actual haul of 28, hinting at overperformance. Their xG of 1.5 per match is slightly better than Oddevold's 1.4, but they're also more leaky at the back, conceding 1.4 xGA compared to Oddevold's more robust 1.0 xGA. This defensive disparity aligns with Oddevold's profile as a counter-attacking unit capable of exploiting gaps, particularly against possession-centric sides like Landskrona.

IK Oddevold's 11% model edge at odds of 2.88 with Pinnacle presents a compelling betting angle, further endorsed by similar value at 2.75 with Betsafe and Betsson. The numbers suggest that Oddevold's structured defense and incisive counterplay could well see them emerging victorious, even if the history books tell a different story.

Weather conditions are a non-factor here, leaving us with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood of both teams finding the net. Given these probabilities and the styles of play, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of IK Oddevold isn't far-fetched. The metrics point to an open game, but with Oddevold's counter-attacking prowess likely being the decisive factor, the smart money is on the away side to edge it, with the over 2.5 goals as a viable lean.

Landskrona BoIS

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #13xT #9xP/match #12Points #5

Key players

Adam EgnellFxG 0.27 · xT 0.36
Zakaria LoukiliFxG 0.22 · xT 0.20
Constantino CapotondiLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.23

Oddevold

Form DLDDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #9

Key players

Gustav ForssellFxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Vincent SundbergRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.16
Esim MehmedLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.36

Match prediction: Landskrona BoIS – Oddevold

Predicted score matrix

Oddevold →

Landskrona BoIS →

0–05.1%

0–16.6%

0–25.0%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.4%

1–111.4%

1–27.9%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.1%

2–18.8%

2–26.3%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.3%

3–14.7%

3–23.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,59–1,44

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.18

Over 2,558%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Oddevold or draw (X2)59%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Oddevold or draw (X2)59%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Gabriel Sandberg to score15%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Enes Hebibovic to score26%
Elias Forsberg to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Oddevold38% probability@2.84PinnacleEV+9%
2 · Oddevold38% probability@2.81BetsafeEV+8%
2 · Oddevold38% probability@2.81BetssonEV+8%

Bookmaker	1 · Landskrona BoIS	X	2 · Oddevold
Betsafe	2.37	3.56	EV+ 8% 2.81
Betsson	2.37	3.56	EV+ 8% 2.81
Nordicbet	2.37	3.56	EV+ 8% 2.81
Pinnacle	2.35	3.48	EV+ 9% 2.84

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:13

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Landskrona BoIS win since 8 August — the odds have shortened from 2.55 to 2.35 (−8%).

1-8 %

41 %36 %

2.55 → 2.35

X-2 %

29 %24 %

3.56 → 3.48

2+11 %

37 %32 %

2.55 → 2.84

Over 2,5+3 %

60 %55 %

1.63 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Landskrona BoIS 3Draw 2Oddevold 0

Goals: 10–5 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Landskrona BoIS dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Landskrona BoIS

Oddevold

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Landskrona BoIS (24–19)

Oddevold (29–26)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Landskrona BoIS

Oddevold

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Landskrona BoIS

Oddevold

The teams in numbers

Performance	Landskrona BoIS	Oddevold
Points	28	25
xPoints	23.8	29
xG per match	1.5	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.2

Playing style	Landskrona BoIS	Oddevold
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.37
Field tilt	0.55	0.48
xT per match	1.5	1.6
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	28	41
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.56
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.28
Entries into the box per match	16	15
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.81	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.71
Passes per match	416	338
Passes against per match	332	423
Switches of play per match	12.7	17.2
Long balls per match	29	29

Set pieces	Landskrona BoIS	Oddevold
xG from free kicks	0.2	0.14
Corners per match	4.8	5.7
Corners against per match	4.8	3.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.56

Other	Landskrona BoIS	Oddevold
Throw-in control	0.55	0.43

The goalkeepers	Amr Kaddoura (Landskrona BoIS)	Morten Sætra (Oddevold)
Saves	37	50
Save %	73%	69%
xG prevented	40%	54%
Claims	91 (95%)	109 (94%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Landskrona BoIS vs Oddevold according to our model?

The model gives Oddevold a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Landskrona BoIS 36%, draw 25%, Oddevold 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.