Norrby vs Östersund: Prediction & Odds (26 Jul 2026)

Swedish Superettan26 July 2026 17:00 CESTBorås Arena, Borås15°5,2 mm21 km/h

Läs på svenska

Norrby

2–2

The model's lean: 2 · Östersund (42%)

Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 15.50 (+15 %)

Östersund

1 · Norrby 32%X 26%42% Östersund · 2

32%

26%

42%

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Norrby 32% · Draw 26% · Östersund 42%

Match prediction: Norrby – Östersund

Predicted score matrix

Östersund →

Norrby →

0–07.4%

0–19.7%

0–27.2%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.7%

1–08.3%

1–112.7%

1–28.8%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.3%

2–17.6%

2–25.4%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.2%

3–13.1%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,22–1,42

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.14EV+8%

Over 2,549%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Östersund or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Double chance Östersund or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals51%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.57% probability@15.50Betfair ExchangeEV+15%
Under 1.526% probability@4.40Betfair ExchangeEV+12%
2 · Östersund42% probability@2.62Betfair ExchangeEV+11%

Bookmaker	1 · Norrby	X	2 · Östersund
BetMGM UK	2.95	3.40	2.20
Betfair Exchange	2.82	3.60	EV+ 11% 2.62
Pinnacle	2.84	3.48	EV+ 4% 2.47

Odds updated 26 Jul, 15:52

Odds movement

1+3 %

35 %30 %

2.76 → 2.84

X+4 %

30 %25 %

3.36 → 3.48

2-1 %

42 %37 %

2.50 → 2.47

Over 2,5-1 %

55 %50 %

1.81 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 21/07/2026 → 26/07/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Norrby vs Östersund according to our model?

The model gives Östersund a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norrby 32%, draw 26%, Östersund 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.