Swedish SuperettanBehrn Arena, Örebro17°18 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Örebro SKÖrebro SK
    1–3
    The model's lean: 1 · Örebro SK (41%)
    IFK VärnamoIFK Värnamo

    Örebro SK – IFK Värnamo · Swedish Superettan

    1 · Örebro SK 41%X 24%35% IFK Värnamo · 2
    Final score
    1 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Örebro SK 41% · Draw 24% · IFK Värnamo 35%

    Match prediction: Örebro SK – IFK Värnamo

    Predicted score matrix

    IFK Värnamo →
    Örebro SK →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–17.3%
    0–25.4%
    0–32.6%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–07.7%
    1–111.8%
    1–28.2%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.1%
    2–18.6%
    2–26.1%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–14.3%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–01.6%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,50–1,42
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.05
    Over 2,556%
    @1.82EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Örebro SK or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Örebro SK or draw (1X)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.01

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.10

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Örebro SK41% probability@2.55PinnacleEV+5%
    • 2 · IFK Värnamo35% probability@3.00Bet365EV+4%
    • Over 2.556% probability@1.82PinnacleEV+2%
    Bookmaker1 · Örebro SKX2 · IFK Värnamo
    Bet3652.053.40
    EV+ 4%
    3.00
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 5%
    2.55    		3.392.78

    Odds updated 3 Aug, 18:08

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an IFK Värnamo win since 28 July — the odds have shortened from 3.03 to 2.78 (−8%).

    1+12 %
    46 %36 %

    2.28 → 2.55

    X-1 %
    33 %23 %

    3.42 → 3.39

    2-8 %
    36 %26 %

    3.03 → 2.78

    Over 2,5+2 %
    58 %48 %

    1.77 → 1.82

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 28/07/2026 → 03/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Örebro SK vs IFK Värnamo according to our model?

    The model gives Örebro SK a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örebro SK 41%, draw 24%, IFK Värnamo 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.