01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Varbergs BoIS or draw (1X)70%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish SuperettanPåskbergsvallen, Varberg18°20 km/h
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Varbergs BoIS2–1
The model's lean: 1 · Varbergs BoIS (40%)
Best value by the model: 2 · Falkenberg @ 3.95 (+37 %)
FalkenbergVarbergs BoIS – Falkenberg · Swedish Superettan
1 · Varbergs BoIS 40%X 26%35% Falkenberg · 2
40%
26%
35%
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Varbergs BoIS 40% · Draw 26% · Falkenberg 35%
Match prediction: Varbergs BoIS – Falkenberg
Predicted score matrix
Falkenberg →
Varbergs BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–16.3%
0–24.4%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.9%
1–111.3%
1–27.4%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.9%
2–19.2%
2–26.2%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.1%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,67–1,34
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.30
Over 2,558%
@1.66
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Varbergs BoIS or draw (1X)70%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Falkenberg35% probability@3.95BetMGM UKEV+37%
- 2 · Falkenberg35% probability@3.50Bet365EV+22%
- 2 · Falkenberg35% probability@3.37PinnacleEV+17%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Varbergs BoIS | X | 2 · Falkenberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | EV+ 22% 3.50 |
| BetMGM UK | 1.75 | 3.80 | EV+ 37% 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 3.36 | EV+ 17% 3.37 |
Odds updated 1 Aug, 14:08
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 28 July — the odds have shortened from 3.70 to 3.36 (−9%).
1+9 %
48 %43 %
2.02 → 2.20
X-9 %
29 %24 %
3.70 → 3.36
20 %
31 %26 %
3.36 → 3.37
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 28/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Varbergs BoIS vs Falkenberg according to our model?
The model gives Varbergs BoIS a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Varbergs BoIS 40%, draw 26%, Falkenberg 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.