Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig23 August 202629°18 km/h

AntalyasporPossession control

PendiksporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Pendikspor (39%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Antalyaspor 31%X 30%39% Pendikspor · 2

31%

30%

39%

Analysis: Antalyaspor – Pendikspor

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

With the model favouring Pendikspor at 39%, this clash against Antalyaspor is set to be a closely contested affair. The teams' profiles hint at a battle of styles: Antalyaspor's preference for possession control against Pendikspor's high press should dictate the rhythm of the game. Historically, possession control can struggle against an intense press, and Pendikspor’s slightly superior expected goals (xG) tally of 1.35 compared to Antalyaspor's 1.02 suggests they might just carve out more opportunities.

Antalyaspor enters this match with a slight edge in points, sitting at 3, compared to Pendikspor's 1. Nonetheless, when diving into the expected points (xPoints), Pendikspor edges it 1.5 to 1.0, indicating their performances may have been more promising than their point tally suggests. This form divergence sees Antalyaspor potentially flattered by the table, while Pendikspor could be underachieving.

The small sample size of recent head-to-heads doesn't provide a strong enough indicator to outweigh the current season form and expected goals metrics. It's these deeper numbers that tip the scales towards Pendikspor. Antalyaspor's defensive frailties are laid bare by their xGA of 2.5 compared to Pendikspor's 1.7, and this vulnerability could be exploited by Pendikspor's pressing game.

With a model probability of 39% for a Pendikspor win and a most likely scoreline of 0-1 (12%), the visitors appear well-placed to edge this encounter. The over 2.5 goals probability is just 42%, implying a lean towards a low-scoring match. The weather isn't expected to play a role in suppressing goals, yet the defensive metrics point towards a cautious prediction.

For those seeking value, Bet365 offers Pendikspor to win at odds of 3.00. This represents a potential edge for punters, given the model's lean and the underlying numbers favouring the visitors.

Antalyaspor

Form WL

League ranking xG #14xGA #20xT #17xP/match #20Points #8

Key players

Sander Van De StreekFxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
Ramzi SafuriCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Mevlüt ŞimşekRWxG 0.50 · xT 0.07

Pendikspor

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #17xT #1xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Hakan YeşilRWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.73
Rogério Conceição do RosárioLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
Mesut OzdemirCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Antalyaspor – Pendikspor

Predicted score matrix

Pendikspor →

Antalyaspor →

0–09.8%

0–112.3%

0–28.5%

0–33.8%

0–4+1.7%

1–09.2%

1–113.3%

1–28.7%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–04.9%

2–16.6%

2–24.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.7%

3–12.2%

3–21.5%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,02–1,35

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

–

Over 2,542%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (X2)72%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Pendikspor or draw (X2)72%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Görkem Bitin to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Alexander Gerard van de Streek to score29%
Mesut Özdemir to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Antalyaspor

Pendikspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Antalyaspor (4–5)

Pendikspor (3–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Antalyaspor

Pendikspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Antalyaspor

Pendikspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
Points	3	1
xPoints	1	1.5
xG per match	1	1.3
xGA per match	2.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	1.1	0.1

Playing style	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.33
Field tilt	0.49	0.67
xT per match	0.56	1.5
xTA per match	1.2	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	20	17
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.26
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	16	8
Pass completion %	0.82	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.76
Passes per match	440	409
Passes against per match	231	249
Switches of play per match	36.2	31.5
Long balls per match	39	38

Set pieces	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.08
Corners per match	2.5	4.9
Corners against per match	6	1.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.02	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	1

Other	Antalyaspor	Pendikspor
Throw-in control	0.63	0.88

The goalkeepers	Abdullah Yigiter (Antalyaspor)	Emre Koyuncu (Pendikspor)
Saves	8	3
Save %	62%	33%
xG prevented	26%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Antalyaspor 31%, draw 30%, Pendikspor 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.