01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bodrumspor to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Turkish 1. Lig28°12 km/h
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BodrumsporPossession controlvs
MU
MuğlasporPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Bodrumspor (50%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Bodrumspor – Muğlaspor · Turkish 1. Lig
1 · Bodrumspor 50%X 23%26% Muğlaspor · 2
50%
23%
26%
Analysis: Bodrumspor – Muğlaspor
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Bodrumspor enters this match with a statistical edge, boasting a 50% chance of victory according to model probabilities, compared to Muğlaspor's 26%. This sets the stage for a fascinating clash in the Turkish 1. Lig. But the subtleties lie in the numbers beneath the surface. The expected goals paint a picture of Bodrumspor's attacking prowess, with a solid 1.96 expected goals compared to Muğlaspor's 1.32. Such figures suggest a likely advantage for the home side, especially with their historical home win rate of 59%.
Bodrumspor's style of possession control will be critical against Muğlaspor's high press. The home side's ability to manage the tempo could exploit Muğlaspor's aggressive approach, particularly since Bodrumspor has a slight edge with 0.13 expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball. However, it's worth noting that Muğlaspor's xPoints of 1.9 suggest they are no pushover, potentially making this a tighter contest than it seems.
1-1 and 2-1 are pegged as the most likely scorelines, each holding a 10% probability. While these predictions indicate a close match, the high over 2.5 goals probability of 64% suggests a goal-fest, not hindered by the weather. The numbers align with a narrative of Bodrumspor asserting control but needing to be wary of Muğlaspor's pressing capabilities.
Muğlaspor's xGA of 1.2 gives them a defensive edge over Bodrumspor's 1.5, indicating that while Bodrumspor could create more chances, Muğlaspor might resist better than expected. However, Bodrumspor's superior home record and offensive numbers are likely to tip the scales in their favor.
For punters, Bodrumspor appears the value bet here, especially with the model's lean towards them and the tempting odds of 2.00 offered by Bet365 for a home win. Expect a 2-1 scoreline, with the match leaning towards over 2.5 goals, as Bodrumspor seeks to leverage their possession control against Muğlaspor's high-press approach.
BodrumsporForm WWLLD
League ranking xG #17xGA #15xT #8xP/match #16Points #14
Key players
- Ege BilselLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.02
- Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.12
- Ali AytemurCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Muğlaspor
Form LD
League ranking xG #19xGA #11xT #14xP/match #15Points #16
Key players
- Bilal CeylanRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Ali Kaan GunerenCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.05
- Driton CamajLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Bodrumspor – Muğlaspor
Predicted score matrix
Muğlaspor →
Bodrumspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–14.7%
0–23.3%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–07.1%
1–110.0%
1–26.4%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.2%
2–19.5%
2–26.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–04.7%
3–16.2%
3–24.1%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–03.6%
4+–14.8%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.4%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,96–1,32
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,536%
–
Over 2,564%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bodrumspor to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Ege Arslan to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Ege Arslan to score27%
- Jurgen Çelhaka to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Key facts
- Bodrumspor win 59% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bodrumspor
Muğlaspor
Bodrumspor (2–4)
Muğlaspor (0–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bodrumspor
Muğlaspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bodrumspor
Muğlaspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bodrumspor | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 0.88 | 0.56 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0 | 0 |
| Playing style | Bodrumspor | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.56 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 345 | 290 |
| Passes against per match | 394 | 444 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.7 | 21 |
| Long balls per match | 48 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Bodrumspor | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 4 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Other | Bodrumspor | Muğlaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor) | Ekrem Kilicarslan (Muğlaspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 3 |
| Save % | 75% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 70% | 23% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bodrumspor vs Muğlaspor according to our model?
The model gives Bodrumspor a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodrumspor 50%, draw 23%, Muğlaspor 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.