Boluspor vs Mardin 1969: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig23 August 202622°8 km/h

BolusporLow block & direct

Mardin 1969Balanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Boluspor (41%)Soft draw

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Boluspor 41%X 22%37% Mardin 1969 · 2

41%

22%

37%

Analysis: Boluspor – Mardin 1969

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Boluspor stand at zero points, a stark contrast to Mardin 1969's four — but the model doesn't seem to care. Boluspor are pegged as slight favorites at 41% probability to win, a curious stance driven more by home advantage than current form. Their expected goals (1.87) suggest they might finally find the back of the net, a task they've struggled with given their paltry xG per match of 0.55.

Mardin 1969, with their balanced and physical style, have shown early-season promise, especially defensively. They boast an xGA per match of just 0.75, indicating a robust backline that's unlikely to be easily breached. Their offensive production is no slouch either, with an xG per match of 1.8, quite the contrast to Boluspor’s struggles. Despite this, the model sees a tight affair, with Boluspor’s direct style potentially unsettling Mardin’s defence.

The weather, if inclement, could indeed put a dampener on goals, but with an over 2.5 goals probability sitting at 60%, there's statistical support for a lively encounter. A 1-1 draw (11%) emerges as the most likely scoreline, underscoring the model's tilt towards a tight contest. Yet Mardin’s superior xPoints (3.4) and xG figures make them appealing, even if the model leans slightly towards Boluspor on home soil.

Despite the limited head-to-head sample size, the numbers paint a picture of Mardin 1969 having the upper hand. The price of 2.70 from Pinnacle on Mardin 1969 to win could be where value resides, given their statistical edge in nearly every department except the whims of the model. This isn’t a guarantee but a sharp angle worth considering for those looking to back underdogs with substance.

Boluspor

Form WLWLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #18xP/match #19Points #19

Key players

Furkan Emin KaçmazLWxG 0.16 · xT -0.03
Rodrigo Rivas GonzálezFxG 0.19 · xT -0.04
Mustafa Alptekin Cayl?RWxG 0.11 · xT -0.03

Mardin 1969

Form DW

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #2xP/match #7Points #7

Key players

Olarenwaju KayodeFxG 0.90 · xT 0.09
Zdravko Minchev DimitrovLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Mustafa ŞengülCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Boluspor – Mardin 1969

Predicted score matrix

Mardin 1969 →

Boluspor →

0–04.7%

0–15.2%

0–23.5%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.6%

1–07.9%

1–110.6%

1–26.5%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.7%

2–19.6%

2–26.0%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.0%

3–04.8%

3–16.0%

3–23.8%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–03.4%

4+–14.3%

4+–22.7%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-08%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,87–1,25

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Boluspor or draw (1X)75%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Boluspor or draw (1X)75%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Rodrigo Rivas González to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Rodrigo Rivas González to score23%
Mustafa Şengül to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Boluspor

Mardin 1969

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Boluspor (1–4)

Mardin 1969 (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Mardin 1969

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Boluspor

Mardin 1969

The teams in numbers

Performance	Boluspor	Mardin 1969
Points	0	4
xPoints	1.3	3.4
xG per match	0.55	1.8
xGA per match	2	0.75
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.81
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.07

Playing style	Boluspor	Mardin 1969
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.39
Field tilt	0.35	0.52
xT per match	0.55	1.4
xTA per match	0.98	0.59
Won balls, offensive half	15	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.19
Entries into the box per match	8	15
Entries into the box against	15	10
Pass completion %	0.67	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.58	0.71
Passes per match	217	298
Passes against per match	425	416
Switches of play per match	19.1	22.9
Long balls per match	29	24

Set pieces	Boluspor	Mardin 1969
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	2	6.6
Corners against per match	5.9	3.6
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.92	0.71

Other	Boluspor	Mardin 1969
Throw-in control	0.69	0.65

The goalkeepers	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)	Erce Kardesler (Mardin 1969)
Saves	4	9
Save %	50%	100%
xG prevented	11%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Boluspor vs Mardin 1969 according to our model?

The model gives Boluspor a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Boluspor 41%, draw 22%, Mardin 1969 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.