Iğdır vs Kayserispor: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig23 August 202625°9 km/h

IğdırPossession control

KayserisporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Iğdır (42%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Iğdır 42%X 28%31% Kayserispor · 2

42%

28%

31%

Analysis: Iğdır – Kayserispor

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

42% – that's the probability, according to the model, of Igdir FK coming out on top against Kayserispor. It's a striking number, considering the latter's edge in both actual points and expected points this season. The model leans towards Igdir FK, but Kayserispor is not to be underestimated with their 6 points on the board compared to Igdir's 3.

Igdir FK kicks off with a possession control style, aiming to dictate the pace of play. Their expected goals (xG) is 1.53, suggesting they have the opportunity to create chances, though their actual xG per match sits at a modest 1.0. Kayserispor, with their high press approach, have posted an impressive xG per match of 2.3, indicating a more dynamic offensive threat. Their expected goals against (xGA) is 0.69, while Igdir FK boasts a better defensive profile with an xGA of just 0.5.

The potential for a 1-1 draw seems tangible, with a 12% likelihood, yet the model hints at a 1-0 or 2-1 result for Igdir FK, both at 9%. Weather isn't a factor this time, so no dampening of the offensive flair should be expected. The over 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 52%, while both teams scoring is a shade more probable at 56%.

Kayserispor's six points so far hint at a team that knows how to get results, but their task won't be straightforward. With Igdir FK's probability to win and Kayserispor's attacking prowess, expect a tightly contested affair. The model tilts towards the home side, but given the attacking numbers, a punt on both teams to score seems the sharpest angle, aligning with the 56% likelihood – shop around for value, with odds on BTTS potentially reflecting that edge.

Iğdır

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #13xGA #1xT #10xP/match #9Points #10

Key players

Arda ColakFxG 0.21 · xT -0.02
Giovanni CrociataLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.00
Doğan ErdoğanCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.16

Kayserispor

Form WW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #6xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Taulant SeferiLWxG 0.51 · xT -0.01
Gorkem SaglamLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.33
Cenk ŞenLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Iğdır – Kayserispor

Predicted score matrix

Kayserispor →

Iğdır →

0–06.6%

0–17.4%

0–24.8%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.8%

1–09.3%

1–112.2%

1–27.3%

1–33.0%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.4%

2–19.1%

2–25.6%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.8%

3–14.7%

3–22.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-17%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,53–1,23

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

–

Over 2,552%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)70%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Iğdır or draw (1X)70%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Arda Çolak to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Taulant Seferi to score34%
Loïc Kouagba to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Iğdır

Kayserispor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Iğdır (2–1)

Kayserispor (4–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Kayserispor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Iğdır

Kayserispor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Iğdır	Kayserispor
Points	3	6
xPoints	3.3	4.2
xG per match	1	2.3
xGA per match	0.5	0.69
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.02	0.59
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.06	0.12

Playing style	Iğdır	Kayserispor
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.66
xT per match	0.95	1.1
xTA per match	0.84	0.6
Won balls, offensive half	31	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.2
Entries into the box per match	8	14
Entries into the box against	8	9
Pass completion %	0.75	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.8
Passes per match	372	505
Passes against per match	348	307
Switches of play per match	16.7	30.1
Long balls per match	33	35

Set pieces	Iğdır	Kayserispor
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	3.5	5.5
Corners against per match	3.5	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.09
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.71	0.82
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.5

Other	Iğdır	Kayserispor
Throw-in control	0.66	0.66

The goalkeepers	Jakub Szumski (Iğdır)	Gokhan Degirmenci (Kayserispor)
Saves	5	4
Save %	83%	100%
xG prevented	66%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Iğdır vs Kayserispor according to our model?

The model gives Iğdır a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Iğdır 42%, draw 28%, Kayserispor 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.