Sivasspor vs Manisa FK: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig23 August 202622°25 km/h

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SivassporBalanced & physical

Manisa FKPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Sivasspor (45%)

1 · Sivasspor 45%X 30%26% Manisa FK · 2

45%

30%

26%

Analysis: Sivasspor – Manisa FK

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Sivasspor find themselves navigating a turbulent patch as they prepare to host an in-form Manisa FK. The numbers paint a vivid picture of divergence: while Sivasspor have struggled to accumulate points, Manisa FK arrive on the back of three consecutive victories, buoyed by a streak of scoring in eight straight league encounters. Yet despite this disparity in momentum and form, the model gives Sivasspor a 45% chance of taking the win, hinting at potential underlying factors that favor the home side.

Manisa FK's ability to find the net consistently is undeniable, underlined by their impressive xG of 2.0 per match. Yet, their defensive solidity is just as compelling, conceding only 0.8 xGA per outing. In contrast, Sivasspor's defensive vulnerabilities are stark, with an xGA of 1.6 raising concerns about their resilience against Manisa's high press and possession-centric approach.

Sivasspor's head-to-head record against Manisa FK, albeit from a very limited two-game sample, shows two wins without conceding. This historical edge might offer some psychological comfort, though it's hardly a reliable predictor, particularly given Manisa's current form and superior underlying metrics this season. Still, with an expected goals tally of 1.50 compared to Manisa's 1.07, Sivasspor could yet capitalize on home advantage.

Considering the probabilities and expected goals, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely outcome, yet with the weather forecast not mentioned, no adverse conditions are assumed to hinder goal-scoring opportunities. The over/under 2.5 leaning marginally under at 47% and both teams to score at 51% underscores a tight affair, with goals both ways a reasonable expectation.

For those seeking value, the draw at 30% offers intrigue at decent odds with several bookmakers. However, should you fancy riding Manisa FK's hot streak, their 26% win chance might also tempt, albeit with cautious stakes given the statistical lean towards a home result. The blend of form, style, and stats makes for a fascinating showdown, with Sivasspor's odds perhaps not fully reflecting their current frailties.

Sivasspor

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #16xT #12xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Valon EthemiLWxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.14
Rey ManajFxG 0.53 · xT -0.12

Manisa FK

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #7xP/match #3Points #1

Key players

Cheikne SyllaFxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
Birama TouréCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.00
Kadir Kaan YurdakulRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Sivasspor – Manisa FK

Predicted score matrix

Manisa FK →

Sivasspor →

0–08.1%

0–17.9%

0–24.4%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.2%

1–112.7%

1–26.6%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.6%

2–19.2%

2–24.9%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.3%

3–14.6%

3–22.4%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,50–1,07

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

–

Over 2,547%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sivasspor or draw (1X)73%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sivasspor or draw (1X)73%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Rey Manaj to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Cheikne Sylla to score29%
Kamil Fidan to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sivasspor 2Draw 0Manisa FK 0

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

Key facts

Manisa FK come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Manisa FK have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sivasspor

Manisa FK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sivasspor (0–2)

Manisa FK (6–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Manisa FK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sivasspor

Manisa FK

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sivasspor	Manisa FK
Points	1	6
xPoints	2.5	3.9
xG per match	1.3	2
xGA per match	1.6	0.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.45
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.17

Playing style	Sivasspor	Manisa FK
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.55	0.54
xT per match	0.87	1.1
xTA per match	0.99	0.64
Won balls, offensive half	17	26
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.29
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	10	8
Pass completion %	0.77	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.73
Passes per match	360	467
Passes against per match	347	284
Switches of play per match	44.6	28.2
Long balls per match	46	38

Set pieces	Sivasspor	Manisa FK
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.18
Corners per match	6.5	3
Corners against per match	4	3
xG per corner	0.06	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.67

Other	Sivasspor	Manisa FK
Throw-in control	0.71	0.7

The goalkeepers	Mehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş (Sivasspor)	Birama Touré (Manisa FK)
Saves	3	4
Save %	60%	100%
xG prevented	44%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sivasspor vs Manisa FK according to our model?

The model gives Sivasspor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sivasspor 45%, draw 30%, Manisa FK 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.