01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Amedspor or draw (X2)75%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Süper Lig
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KocaelisporPossession controlvs
AmedsporBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Amedspor (43%)
Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.
Kocaelispor – Amedspor · Süper Lig
1 · Kocaelispor 26%X 31%43% Amedspor · 2
26%
31%
43%
Analysis: Kocaelispor – Amedspor
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Zero. That's the number of points Kocaelispor has accumulated this season, a stark contrast to Amed's solid start with three points. Add to that Kocaelispor's three-game losing streak, and you have a team desperately searching for form. A closer look at the expected goals (xG) tells a similar story. Kocaelispor's 0.48 xG per match is dwarfed by Amed's 1.2, illustrating not only their struggle to find the back of the net but also their vulnerability at the back with a significant 2.3 xGA compared to Amed's compact 0.43.
Kocaelispor play a possession-based game, but that hasn't translated into results. Amed, with their balanced and physical style, are more efficient, controlling their space and transitions. With expected goals of 1.33 for Amed against Kocaelispor's meager 0.91, Amed's sharper edge seems likely to cut through the home side's defense. A predicted 0-1 scoreline at 14% probability best captures this dynamic, suggesting a tight but decisive advantage for the visitors.
The weather isn't a factor here, letting the numbers speak for themselves. The probabilities and playing styles suggest a low-scoring affair, with a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams finding the net. Given Kocaelispor's current form, expecting fireworks seems unwise.
Amed opening as the model's favorite at 43% probability aligns perfectly with the suggested betting angles. With odds of 3.55 available on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and a hefty 52% edge on that value, backing Amed for the win is the sharpest play on the board. A calculated risk, but one with a promising upside, especially for those who trust the numbers over narratives.
KocaelisporForm LDLLL
League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #15xP/match #18Points #17
Key players
- Bruno PetkovićFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
- Serdar DursunFxG 0.47 · xT 0.04
- Ahmet OğuzRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
AmedsporForm W
League ranking xG #10xGA #2xT #7xP/match #3Points #1
Match prediction: Kocaelispor – Amedspor
Predicted score matrix
Amedspor →
Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.0%
0–113.7%
0–29.4%
0–34.2%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–09.3%
1–113.3%
1–28.6%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–04.4%
2–15.9%
2–23.9%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–01.3%
3–11.8%
3–21.2%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.1%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-114%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.1-09%
Expected goals
0,91–1,33
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
@1.70EV+4%
Over 2,539%
@2.05
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Amedspor or draw (X2)75%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Mbaye Diagne to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi Agyei to score27%
- Manuel Luís da Silva Cafumana to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Amedspor43% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+42%reference odds
- 2 · Amedspor43% probability@3.30BetssonEV+42%reference odds
- 2 · Amedspor43% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+42%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Kocaelispor | X | 2 · Amedspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | EV+ 1% 3.25 | EV+ 42% 3.30 |
| Betsson | 2.15 | EV+ 1% 3.25 | EV+ 42% 3.30 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | EV+ 1% 3.25 | EV+ 42% 3.30 |
Odds updated 19 Aug, 15:37
Odds movement
1+5 %
46 %41 %
2.05 → 2.15
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.25 → 3.25
2-7 %
30 %25 %
3.55 → 3.30
Over 2,5-2 %
47 %42 %
2.09 → 2.05
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Kocaelispor have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Kocaelispor
Amedspor
Kocaelispor (0–2)
Amedspor (3–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Kocaelispor
Amedspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Kocaelispor
Amedspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Kocaelispor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| xG per match | 0.48 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 2.3 | 0.43 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.1 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Kocaelispor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.56 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 0.85 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 6 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Passes per match | 401 | 400 |
| Passes against per match | 423 | 456 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 17.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Kocaelispor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 7.1 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 1 |
| Other | Kocaelispor | Amedspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Serhat Öztaşdelen (Kocaelispor) | Alban-Marc Lafont (Amedspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 1 |
| Save % | 60% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 22% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Kocaelispor vs Amedspor according to our model?
The model gives Amedspor a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kocaelispor 26%, draw 31%, Amedspor 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.