Austria Wien vs Beitar Jerusalem: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202619°12 km/h

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Austria WienCounter-attacks & crosses

Beitar JerusalemPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Beitar Jerusalem (40%)

1 · Austria Wien 32%X 28%40% Beitar Jerusalem · 2

32%

28%

40%

Analysis: Austria Wien – Beitar Jerusalem

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Three wins on the bounce for Austria Vienna suggest momentum, but the model's numbers tilt towards Beitar Jerusalem F.C. with a 40% win probability. Such a contradiction sets the stage for an intriguing clash in the Conference League. Despite Austria Vienna's recent form, the projection leans towards the visitors, hinting at Beitar's capacity to disrupt the Viennese home fortress.

Austria Vienna has been riding high with a run of scoring in nine successive league matches, hinting at a potent attack. Yet, Beitar's high-press style, coupled with robust possession play, poses a formidable challenge. The expected goals—Austria Vienna at 1.15 against Beitar’s 1.34—underscore a slight edge for the visitors in potential attacking output. The most probable scoreline of 1-1 underlines a tightly contested affair, where Austria Vienna's counter-attacking flair will need to circumvent Beitar's tactical pressure.

With only one head-to-head match to refer to since 2023, where Austria Vienna emerged victorious, the historical data remains too thin to overshadow current form and expected goals. Austria Vienna's ability to score is undeniable, but they face a Beitar squad that has the statistical backing to extend their winless streak to an end. The tension lies in whether Austria Vienna's scoring streak can resist Beitar's pressing game.

At 45%, the over 2.5 goals metric isn't compelling enough to bet on a goal fest, especially given both teams' relatively balanced defensive records. However, the market offers tantalizing value for Beitar Jerusalem F.C. at odds of 2.88 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, where the model's 40% win prediction juxtaposes sharply against bookmaker odds, creating a 15% value edge. This angle, more than any other, crystallizes the betting intrigue of this matchup.

Austria Wien

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #18xT #9xP/match #10Points #3

Key players

Manfred FischerFxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
Florian WustingerFxG 0.02 · xT -0.02
Matteo SchablasLWBxG 0.20 · xT -0.03

Beitar Jerusalem

Form L

League ranking xG #5xGA #19xT #7xP/match #23Points #26

Key players

Yarden CohenLBxG 0.24 · xT 0.21
Nana Kwame AntwiRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.43
Brayan Stiven Carabalí BonillaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Austria Wien – Beitar Jerusalem

Predicted score matrix

Beitar Jerusalem →

Austria Wien →

0–08.7%

0–110.8%

0–27.5%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.2%

1–113.1%

1–28.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.5%

2–17.3%

2–24.9%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.1%

3–12.8%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,15–1,34

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@2.08EV+14%

Over 2,545%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Beitar Jerusalem or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Beitar Jerusalem or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Yarden Shua to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Yarden Shua to score28%
Florian Wustinger to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Beitar Jerusalem40% probability@2.92BetsafeEV+17%
2 · Beitar Jerusalem40% probability@2.92BetssonEV+17%
2 · Beitar Jerusalem40% probability@2.92NordicbetEV+17%

Bookmaker	1 · Austria Wien	X	2 · Beitar Jerusalem
Betsafe	2.18	3.50	EV+ 17% 2.92
Betsson	2.18	3.50	EV+ 17% 2.92
Nordicbet	2.18	3.50	EV+ 17% 2.92
Pinnacle	2.17	EV+ 0% 3.52	EV+ 12% 2.80

Odds updated 11 Aug, 20:08

Odds movement

1+1 %

45 %40 %

2.15 → 2.17

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.51 → 3.52

2-3 %

34 %29 %

2.89 → 2.80

Over 2,5-1 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.70

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Austria Wien 1Draw 0Beitar Jerusalem 0

Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Conference League data since 2023.

Key facts

Austria Vienna come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Austria Vienna have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Austria Wien

Beitar Jerusalem

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Austria Wien (7–2)

Beitar Jerusalem (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Austria Wien

Beitar Jerusalem

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Austria Wien

Beitar Jerusalem

The teams in numbers

Performance	Austria Wien	Beitar Jerusalem
Points	9	0
xPoints	4.9	1.1
xG per match	1.8	2.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.54

Playing style	Austria Wien	Beitar Jerusalem
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.46	0.84
xT per match	1.4	1.5
xTA per match	1.2	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	19	33
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.49
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.54
Entries into the box per match	14	16
Entries into the box against	14	7
Pass completion %	0.75	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.74
Passes per match	339	563
Passes against per match	370	191
Switches of play per match	21.8	23.4
Long balls per match	30	26

Set pieces	Austria Wien	Beitar Jerusalem
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	4	5.8
Corners against per match	5	0.97
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.17
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	1

Other	Austria Wien	Beitar Jerusalem
Throw-in control	0.75	0.55

The goalkeepers	Samuel Sahin Radlinger (Austria Wien)	Miguel Silva (Beitar Jerusalem)
Saves	9	3
Save %	82%	60%
xG prevented	50%	76%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Austria Wien vs Beitar Jerusalem according to our model?

The model gives Beitar Jerusalem a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Wien 32%, draw 28%, Beitar Jerusalem 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.