Rapid Wien vs Paide: Prediction & Odds (12 Aug 2026)

Conference League12 August 202623°13 km/h

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Rapid WienPossession & high press

2–0

PaideLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Rapid Wien (65%)Best value by the model: 2 · Paide @ 19.58 (+178 %)

1 · Rapid Wien 65%X 21%14% Paide · 2

65%

21%

14%

Analysis: Rapid Wien – Paide

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Nine points versus zero tells a tale of two dramatically different campaigns, and SK Rapid Vienna's form is as sharp as their possession-heavy, high-press style. On paper, the Austrians look set to dictate proceedings against a Paide side that leans on direct play and a deep defensive setup. The model probabilities clearly favour Rapid Vienna, assigning them a 65% chance of victory. Paide, despite their efforts, are given a mere 14%, reflecting not just the disparity in form but in underlying metrics as well.

SK Rapid Vienna have been racking up victories with the efficiency of a well-oiled machine. Three consecutive wins speak volumes, yet it's the underlying numbers that truly underscore their dominance. With an average of 2.9 xG generated per match against Paide's 1.4, Rapid Vienna are expected to carve out more high-quality chances. Defensively, the contrast is even starker: Rapid's xGA per match stands at a miserly 0.92, compared to Paide's 3.2. This is a team in control, both in terms of possession and pressing.

Paide's defensive frailties suggest a tough afternoon ahead, but in football, drama often lurks in the margins. Despite the odds, the model sees an enticing yet unlikely scenario for upset hunters: a 212% edge on an away win at odds of 22.0 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. It’s a long shot, but one that offers value for those willing to take a punt on the underdog story.

Expect SK Rapid Vienna to assert their dominance, likely translating their superior xG into a tangible lead. The most probable scoreline sits at 2-0 or 2-1, each with a 10% likelihood, which aligns well with the expected goals data. With a 58% chance leaning towards over 2.5 goals, the match is likely to see the scoreboard tick over more than once. Both sides have a 54% chance of finding the back of the net, hinting at possible vulnerabilities in Vienna’s otherwise robust setup.

As the final whistle looms, it’s the sharp, calculated whispers of value and probability that linger. While SK Rapid Vienna should edge this comfortably, those dreamers drawn to long odds might just find themselves casting a hopeful glance towards Paide, wondering what if.

Rapid Wien

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #5xP/match #6Points #1

Key players

Bendeguz BollaRWBxG 0.35 · xT 0.61
Yusuf DemirRWxG 0.48 · xT 0.26
Jonas Antonius AuerLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.52

Paide

Form DD

League ranking xG #18xGA #35xT #25xP/match #24Points #32

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Rapid Wien 65% · Draw 21% · Paide 14%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Paide LinnameeskondBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 74,22fair 23,93+210 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Rapid WienBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,23fair 5,18-38 %

Miss

Match prediction: Rapid Wien – Paide

Predicted score matrix

Paide →

Rapid Wien →

0–05.2%

0–14.4%

0–22.2%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.8%

1–19.9%

1–24.6%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.4%

2–19.9%

2–24.8%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.1%

3–16.8%

3–23.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–05.9%

4+–15.7%

4+–22.7%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-110%
4.1-010%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,06–0,96

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@3.05EV+28%

Over 2,558%

@1.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rapid Wien to win65%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rapid Wien to win65%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ercan Kara to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ercan Kara to score30%
Predrag Medić to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Paide14% probability@19.58PinnacleEV+178%reference odds
2 · Paide14% probability@18.50BetsafeEV+163%reference odds
2 · Paide14% probability@18.50BetssonEV+163%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rapid Wien	X	2 · Paide
Betsafe	1.11	EV+ 61% 7.60	EV+ 163% 18.50
Betsson	1.11	EV+ 61% 7.60	EV+ 163% 18.50
Nordicbet	1.11	EV+ 61% 7.60	EV+ 163% 18.50
Pinnacle	1.07	EV+ 113% 10.04	EV+ 178% 19.58

Odds updated 12 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

89 %84 %

1.08 → 1.07

X+5 %

12 %7 %

9.55 → 10.04

2+4 %

7 %2 %

18.83 → 19.58

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

SK Rapid Vienna come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rapid Wien

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rapid Wien (13–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rapid Wien	Paide
Points	9	0
xPoints	5.9	1.1
xG per match	2.9	1.4
xGA per match	0.92	3.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.2

Playing style	Rapid Wien	Paide
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.25
Field tilt	0.84	0.1
xT per match	2.1	0.73
xTA per match	0.83	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	38	15
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.21
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.12
Entries into the box per match	25	4
Entries into the box against	6	21
Pass completion %	0.87	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.82	0.67
Passes per match	607	197
Passes against per match	309	696
Switches of play per match	37.2	19.1
Long balls per match	33	26

Set pieces	Rapid Wien	Paide
xG from free kicks	0.14	0
Corners per match	4.7	4
Corners against per match	3	5
xG per corner	0.01	0.31
xGA per corner against	0.14	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.75
First touch, defensive corners %	0.22	0.8

Other	Rapid Wien	Paide
Throw-in control	0.8	0.6

The goalkeepers	Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien)	Paide
Saves	3	–
Save %	43%	–
xG prevented	23%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Rapid Wien

Fixtures, form & tips

Paide

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rapid Wien vs Paide according to our model?

The model gives Rapid Wien a 65% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rapid Wien 65%, draw 21%, Paide 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.