Gent vs IFK Göteborg: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202630°12 km/h

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GentBalanced & physical

1–1

IFK Göteborg

The model's lean: 1 · Gent (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · IFK Göteborg @ 5.90 (+111 %)

1 · Gent 40%X 25%36% IFK Göteborg · 2

40%

25%

36%

Analysis: Gent – IFK Göteborg

Erik Lindberg · 11 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

KAA Gent's 40% win probability is the highest in this match's model, yet it’s Goteborg who steal the spotlight with a tantalizing value edge. Having odds of 5.54 at Pinnacle reflects a striking 98% edge — a rare find for punters eyeing profit amidst the uncertainty of European nights. While the Belgian side seems the marginal favorite, the margins are slim and the real betting gold glistens with the Swedish visitors.

Goteborg, with a respectable 36% likelihood according to the model, aren’t simply here to make up the numbers. Their potential to disrupt Gent's evening leans heavily on their ability to exploit defensive lapses. The model’s expected goals suggest a tightly-knit confrontation: Gent’s 1.58 slightly edges Goteborg’s 1.42. However, both teams to score comes in at a robust 61%, painting a picture of a match destined to see goals from each end.

Weather hasn’t been flagged to impact proceedings, so the 58% chance of over 2.5 goals must be considered without meteorological interference. With the most likely scoreline pegged at 1-1, there’s an implication of competitiveness and a very open game, thanks in part to Goteborg's equally weighted attacking potential against Gent.

Goteborg presents a seductive EV+ opportunity at both Betsafe and Betsson, each offering odds of 5.4 — a chance to back the away side with a 93% edge. It’s a scenario bettors dream of, particularly when the model and bookmakers’ odds diverge so distinctly.

Ultimately, while Gent might seem the safer choice based on sheer probability, the value in Goteborg’s odds is too good to ignore. A 2-1 or even a 1-2 scoreline isn't far-fetched, and with generous odds, swinging with Goteborg might just be the shrewd play.

Gent

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #29xGA #20xT #18xP/match #19Points #22

Key players

Tsuyoshi WatanabeCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.09
Omri GandelmanCAMxG 0.49 · xT -0.01
Momodou Lamin SonkoLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09

IFK Göteborg

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Gent 40% · Draw 25% · IFK Göteborg 36%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IFK GöteborgBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 23,50fair 9,25+154 %

Miss

Matchresultat - KAA GentBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,82fair 7,53-36 %

Miss

Match prediction: Gent – IFK Göteborg

Predicted score matrix

IFK Göteborg →

Gent →

0–05.3%

0–16.8%

0–25.0%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.5%

1–111.5%

1–27.9%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.8%

2–06.2%

2–18.8%

2–26.3%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.3%

3–14.6%

3–23.3%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,58–1,42

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.02

Over 2,558%

@1.74EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Gent or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Gent or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ibrahima Cisse to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Ibrahima Cisse to score28%
Matties Volckaert to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · IFK Göteborg36% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+111%reference odds
2 · IFK Göteborg36% probability@5.90BetssonEV+111%reference odds
2 · IFK Göteborg36% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+111%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gent	X	2 · IFK Göteborg
Betsafe	1.46	EV+ 7% 4.35	EV+ 111% 5.90
Betsson	1.46	EV+ 7% 4.35	EV+ 111% 5.90
Nordicbet	1.46	EV+ 7% 4.35	EV+ 111% 5.90
Pinnacle	1.49	4.07	EV+ 98% 5.56

Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

1+1 %

64 %59 %

1.48 → 1.49

X-1 %

25 %20 %

4.10 → 4.07

2-1 %

19 %14 %

5.60 → 5.56

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.74 → 1.74

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2024

Gent (9–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gent

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gent

The goalkeepers	Davy Roef (Gent)	IFK Göteborg
Saves	28	–
Save %	76%	–
xG prevented	73%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Gent

Fixtures, form & tips

IFK Göteborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gent vs IFK Göteborg according to our model?

The model gives Gent a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gent 40%, draw 25%, IFK Göteborg 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.