Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 2026

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Qarabağ

Dynamo KyivBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Qarabağ (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Dynamo Kyiv @ 3.67 (+26 %)

1 · Qarabağ 38%X 28%34% Dynamo Kyiv · 2

38%

28%

34%

Analysis: Qarabağ – Dynamo Kyiv

Marcus Johansson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

A 38% probability for Qarabag FK stands as a subtle flag for the home side in this clash against Dynamo Kyiv. Both teams enter the Conference League with ambitions but face a tight statistical matchup. The most likely scoreline is pegged at 1-1, capturing the essence of a duel that may well hinge on small margins. Yet, the model leans slightly towards Qarabag, suggesting a home victory by the slimmest of threads.

Dynamo Kyiv, however, might just find a rhythm that beats the odds. At 3.57 with Pinnacle, there’s a tantalizing 22% edge for the away win, a value proposition that could tempt the shrewd bettor. A small sample of head-to-head data exists, which means we should look beyond it, favoring instead the expected goals metric. Here, Qarabag FK edges slightly ahead with 1.42 to Dynamo's 1.31, implying a marginally higher attacking potential for the home squad.

The odds for a draw at 3.6 with Betfair Exchange expose a 0% edge, so while the stalemate at 28% probability is within reach, it lacks the compelling value of an away win. Despite this, with both teams to score at 56% and the over 2.5 goals barely nudging above the halfway mark at 51%, the match promises tension but perhaps not an outpouring of goals.

Dynamo Kyiv opens an interesting narrative in this betting tale. While Qarabag FK shows a model lean, the numbers reveal a hidden gem. The away win at 3.57 with Pinnacle is the sharpest angle, offering significant value in a match where, despite the probabilities, the visitors could well defy the odds.

Qarabağ

Dynamo Kyiv

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #62xGA #59xT #40xP/match #66Points #36

Key players

Mykola MykhailenkoCDMxG 0.03 · xT -0.02
Nazar VoloshynRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Aliou ThiareCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Qarabağ – Dynamo Kyiv

Predicted score matrix

Dynamo Kyiv →

Qarabağ →

0–06.9%

0–18.2%

0–25.6%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.1%

1–09.0%

1–112.5%

1–27.9%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.5%

2–06.6%

2–18.6%

2–25.6%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.1%

3–14.1%

3–22.7%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,42–1,31

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.98

Over 2,551%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

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01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Qarabağ or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Qarabağ or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Camilo Andres Durán Marquez to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Camilo Andres Durán Marquez to score32%
Taras Mykhavko to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Dynamo Kyiv34% probability@3.67PinnacleEV+26%
2 · Dynamo Kyiv34% probability@3.30Betfair ExchangeEV+13%
X · Draw28% probability@3.60Betfair ExchangeEV+0%

Bookmaker	1 · Qarabağ	X	2 · Dynamo Kyiv
Betfair Exchange	2.12	EV+ 0% 3.60	EV+ 13% 3.30
Pinnacle	1.75	3.59	EV+ 26% 3.67

Odds updated 12 Aug, 10:09

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Qarabağ win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.75 (−10%).

1-10 %

54 %44 %

1.95 → 1.75

X0 %

30 %20 %

3.58 → 3.59

2+12 %

31 %21 %

3.29 → 3.67

Over 2,5-2 %

58 %48 %

1.86 → 1.83

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dynamo Kyiv

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Dynamo Kyiv (9–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dynamo Kyiv

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dynamo Kyiv

The goalkeepers	Qarabağ	Ruslan Neshcheret (Dynamo Kyiv)
Saves	–	22
Save %	–	71%
xG prevented	–	41%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv according to our model?

The model gives Qarabağ a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Qarabağ 38%, draw 28%, Dynamo Kyiv 34%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.