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    MidtjyllandMidtjyllandPossession control
    3–2
    BohemiansBohemiansLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Midtjylland (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bohemians @ 11.50 (+117 %)

    Midtjylland vs Bohemians · Conference League

    1 · Midtjylland 62%X 19%19% Bohemians · 2

    Analysis: Midtjylland – Bohemians

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    62% of the numbers point to Midtjylland, yet the 19% draw rate and Bohemian Football Club's identical 19% probability of winning suggest a lurking unpredictability. Midtjylland's control-oriented style will aim to suffocate the game, whereas Bohemian's low defense and direct approach could lead to moments of chaos. The numbers predict a 2-0 or 2-1 result, but with the same likelihood as a 1-1 draw, this game has a hint of suspense.

    Midtjylland arrives with a slight edge, boasting three points to Bohemian's nil. Yet, dig deeper into the xPoints and you see Bohemian Football Club with the upper hand, 1.4 to 1.2. Despite Midtjylland's higher expected goals per match at 0.8 versus Bohemian's 0.62, the picture isn't entirely rosy for them. Their expected goals against per match also shows an advantage at 0.62 compared to Bohemian's 0.8, highlighting their defensive prowess.

    Bohemian Football Club could be the party crashers here. With a 173% edge for away victory at odds 14.5 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's undeniable value. It's a long shot, a true underdog story, but such odds are rare gems in betting. A punt on Bohemian at those odds could be rewarding for the brave.

    The emphasis on possession by Midtjylland and the counter-attacking nature of Bohemian implies goals, with an overwhelming 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood of both teams scoring. Expect some scoreboard action but not a flood, as the weather—should it dampen the pitch—could suppress goal-scoring opportunities.

    In the end, the sharpest angle lies in backing the unexpected. The lure of an astonishing return on Bohemian's unlikely triumph might be too tempting to pass up. Could they capitalize on a fleeting moment of brilliance and break the script? For those with a taste for risk, this is your golden ticket.

    MidtjyllandMidtjylland
    Form LLWDD
    League ranking xG #28xGA #4xT #32xP/match #20Points #14
    Key players
    • Mads Bech SorensenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
    • Valdemar ByskovCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.00
    • Rasmus KristensenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
    BohemiansBohemians
    Form L
    League ranking xG #34xGA #6xT #35xP/match #15Points #30
    Key players
    • Dawson DevoyCMxG 0.00 · xT -0.04
    • Darragh PowerRWxG 0.00 · xT -0.02
    • Patrick HickeyCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
    Final score
    3 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Midtjylland 62% · Draw 19% · Bohemians 19%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC MidtjyllandBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,42fair 4,97-31 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Midtjylland – Bohemians

    Predicted score matrix

    Bohemians →
    Midtjylland →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.8%
    0–14.3%
    0–22.3%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.3%
    1–19.8%
    1–24.7%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–010.0%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–06.9%
    3–16.9%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–05.9%
    4+–15.9%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-010%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    2,09–1,00
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.72EV+10%
    Over 2,560%
    @1.50

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Midtjylland to win62%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Midtjylland to win62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Cho Gue-Sung to score34%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Cho Gue-Sung to score34%
    • Niall Morahan to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Bohemians19% probability@11.50BetsafeEV+117%reference odds
    • 2 · Bohemians19% probability@11.50BetssonEV+117%reference odds
    • 2 · Bohemians19% probability@11.50NordicbetEV+117%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · MidtjyllandX2 · Bohemians
    Betsafe1.21
    EV+ 8%
    5.75
    EV+ 117%
    11.50
    Betsson1.21
    EV+ 8%
    5.75
    EV+ 117%
    11.50
    Nordicbet1.21
    EV+ 8%
    5.75
    EV+ 117%
    11.50
    Paddy Power1.22
    EV+ 3%
    5.50
    EV+ 60%
    8.50
    Pinnacle1.18
    EV+ 21%
    6.43
    EV+ 98%
    10.50

    Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    79 %74 %

    1.20 → 1.18

    X+5 %
    17 %12 %

    6.10 → 6.43

    2+9 %
    11 %6 %

    9.67 → 10.50

    Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bohemians
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Bohemians (0–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bohemians
    Patrick Hickey: 33 passningar, xT 0.01HickeySam Todd: 31 passningar, xT 0.09ToddDawson Devoy: 28 passningar, xT -0.03DevoyJordan Flores: 27 passningar, xT 0.12FloresPaul Walters: 24 passningar, xT 0.06WaltersCian Byrne: 24 passningar, xT 0.06ByrneDarragh Power: 17 passningar, xT -0.02PowerSenan Michael Mullen: 10 passningar, xT -0.01MullenDouglas James Taylor: 8 passningar, xT 0.04TaylorConnor Parsons: 7 passningar, xT -0.03ParsonsHarry Patrick Vaughan: 7 passningar, xT 0.02Vaughan
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bohemians
    Patrick Hickey: 33 passningar, xT 0.01HickeySam Todd: 31 passningar, xT 0.09ToddDawson Devoy: 28 passningar, xT -0.03DevoyJordan Flores: 27 passningar, xT 0.12FloresPaul Walters: 24 passningar, xT 0.06WaltersCian Byrne: 24 passningar, xT 0.06ByrneDarragh Power: 17 passningar, xT -0.02PowerSenan Michael Mullen: 10 passningar, xT -0.01MullenDouglas James Taylor: 8 passningar, xT 0.04TaylorConnor Parsons: 7 passningar, xT -0.03ParsonsHarry Patrick Vaughan: 7 passningar, xT 0.02Vaughan

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceMidtjyllandBohemians
    Points30
    xPoints1.21.4
    xG per match0.80.62
    xGA per match0.620.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.350.06
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.060.35
    Playing styleMidtjyllandBohemians
    Build-up efficiency0.310.35
    Field tilt0.50.5
    xT per match0.460.33
    xTA per match0.330.46
    Won balls, offensive half1927
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.23
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.19
    Entries into the box per match108
    Entries into the box against810
    Pass completion %0.790.68
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.7
    Passes per match477236
    Passes against per match236477
    Switches of play per match35.822.8
    Long balls per match4135
    Set piecesMidtjyllandBohemians
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match83
    Corners against per match38
    xG per corner00.03
    xGA per corner against0.030
    First touch, offensive corners %0.380.67
    First touch, defensive corners %0.330.62
    OtherMidtjyllandBohemians
    Throw-in control0.880.81
    The goalkeepersMidtjyllandPaul Walters (Bohemians)
    Saves–4
    Save %–67%
    xG prevented–60%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Midtjylland
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Bohemians
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Midtjylland vs Bohemians according to our model?

    The model gives Midtjylland a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Midtjylland 62%, draw 19%, Bohemians 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.