Shelbourne vs Ajax: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202623°1,4 mm24 km/h

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ShelbourneLow block & direct

2–2

AjaxPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Ajax (57%)Best value by the model: 1 · Shelbourne @ 12.74 (+169 %)

1 · Shelbourne 21%X 22%57% Ajax · 2

21%

22%

57%

Analysis: Shelbourne – Ajax

Sofia Andersson · 11 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Let’s cut right to the chase: AFC Ajax holds a commanding advantage over Shelbourne in this Conference League clash. With a model probability of 57% for an Ajax win and a hefty 61% chance that the match sees over 2.5 goals, this feels like a contest where the Dutch side can flex its muscles. The expected goals tell a similar story, with AFC Ajax projected at 1.99 compared to Shelbourne's modest 1.18. The 1-1 and 1-2 scorelines are equally the most likely, but don't be surprised if Ajax runs away with it.

AFC Ajax is riding a wave of momentum with three consecutive victories, and their high-press possession style is likely to exploit Shelbourne's low defence strategy. Shelbourne, on the other hand, has been struggling, and their negligible xPoints of 0.1 compared to Ajax's 7.3 tell you all you need to know about the form book. The numbers paint a stark picture: Shelbourne's xG per match languishes at 0.28, while their xGA is an alarming 7.3. It's hard to see them holding up against an Ajax side that boasts an xG of 4.4.

The head-to-head record is too scant to be definitive, but the lone encounter saw AFC Ajax take the spoils. Although it’s just one match, it fits neatly into the broader theme of Ajax’s superiority. Shelbourne's chance might hinge on taking advantage of the 249% value edge at 16.5 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet—particularly if you fancy a punt on the long shot. That said, the model's endorsement of Shelbourne at 21% is more a nod to potential value than probability.

One can reasonably expect a scoreline around 1-2 or 0-2, with Ajax likely dominating proceedings. The over 2.5 goals wager seems in play given the attacking prowess of Ajax and Shelbourne's defensive frailties. Yet, the real betting intrigue lies in those juicy odds for a Shelbourne upset—perhaps a nod to fortune rather than form.

Shelbourne

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #37xGA #37xT #37xP/match #37Points #28

Key players

Sam BoneCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
James Barry NorrisLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02

Ajax

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Steven BerghuisRWxG 0.57 · xT 0.55
Mika GodtsLWxG 0.75 · xT 0.43
Owen Colin WijndalLWBxG 0.50 · xT 0.30

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Shelbourne 21% · Draw 22% · Ajax 57%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ShelbourneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 45,19fair 14,52+211 %

Miss

Matchresultat - AjaxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,46fair 5,07-32 %

Miss

Match prediction: Shelbourne – Ajax

Predicted score matrix

Ajax →

Shelbourne →

0–04.5%

0–18.1%

0–28.3%

0–35.5%

0–4+4.3%

1–04.7%

1–110.1%

1–29.8%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.1%

2–02.9%

2–15.8%

2–25.8%

2–33.8%

2–4+3.0%

3–01.1%

3–12.3%

3–22.3%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.2%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-28%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,18–1,99

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.88EV+10%

Over 2,561%

@1.37

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Ajax to win57%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Ajax to win57%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Kasper Dolberg Rasmussen to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Kasper Dolberg Rasmussen to score40%
Jack Henry-Francis to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Shelbourne21% probability@12.74PinnacleEV+169%reference odds
1 · Shelbourne21% probability@12.50BetsafeEV+164%reference odds
1 · Shelbourne21% probability@12.50BetssonEV+164%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Shelbourne	X	2 · Ajax
Betsafe	EV+ 164% 12.50	EV+ 47% 6.70	1.17
Betsson	EV+ 164% 12.50	EV+ 47% 6.70	1.17
Nordicbet	EV+ 164% 12.50	EV+ 47% 6.70	1.17
Paddy Power	EV+ 111% 10.00	EV+ 42% 6.50	1.17
Pinnacle	EV+ 169% 12.74	EV+ 62% 7.39	1.14

Odds updated 13 Aug, 07:35

Odds movement

1+19 %

10 %5 %

10.72 → 12.74

X+10 %

15 %10 %

6.70 → 7.39

2-3 %

82 %77 %

1.17 → 1.14

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Shelbourne 0Draw 0Ajax 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Conference League data since 2023.

Key facts

AFC Ajax come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shelbourne

Ajax

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Shelbourne (1–3)

Ajax (11–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shelbourne

Ajax

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shelbourne

Ajax

The teams in numbers

Performance	Shelbourne	Ajax
Points	0	9
xPoints	0.1	7.3
xG per match	0.28	4.4
xGA per match	7.3	0.37
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0	0.68
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	1.1	0.08

Playing style	Shelbourne	Ajax
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.06	0.91
xT per match	0.12	2.7
xTA per match	3.6	0.43
Won balls, offensive half	15	27
Pressing intensity	0.36	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.17	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.04	0.29
Entries into the box per match	1	32
Entries into the box against	33	4
Pass completion %	0.73	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.81
Passes per match	232	639
Passes against per match	667	242
Switches of play per match	16.1	34.5
Long balls per match	28	29

Set pieces	Shelbourne	Ajax
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	0	10.8
Corners against per match	14.1	1
xG per corner	0	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0

Other	Shelbourne	Ajax
Throw-in control	0.79	0.88

The goalkeepers	Edward James Beach (Shelbourne)	Maarten Vincent Paes (Ajax)
Saves	9	6
Save %	75%	67%
xG prevented	52%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Shelbourne

Fixtures, form & tips

Ajax

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Shelbourne vs Ajax according to our model?

The model gives Ajax a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shelbourne 21%, draw 22%, Ajax 57%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.