Tromsø vs CFR Cluj: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202613°6,8 mm25 km/h

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Tromsø

2–1

CFR ClujLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Tromsø (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · CFR Cluj @ 7.40 (+111 %)

1 · Tromsø 44%X 27%28% CFR Cluj · 2

44%

27%

28%

Analysis: Tromsø – CFR Cluj

Sofia Andersson · 11 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Tromso enters this clash with the statistical upper hand, sporting a 44% chance of victory according to the model's assessment. Their recent form bolsters this confidence, suggesting a narrow edge over CFR Cluj. Over in Romania, Cluj might be eyeing an upset, but their 28% chance of winning feels optimistic against the backdrop of Tromso’s expected goals of 1.58 compared to their 1.22. While Tromso holds the numerical advantage, the scene isn’t set for a landslide.

The model pegs a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome at 12%, which dovetails neatly with the 56% chance of both teams finding the net. A wet and potentially windy evening in Tromso, with 6.8 mm of rain anticipated, might put a damper on free-scoring ambitions, though the over 2.5 goals probability remains at 53%. Weather conditions aside, these metrics favor a tactical skirmish rather than a goal fest. Expect the home side to flex their muscles, but not without resistance from their Romanian guests.

Tromso has the odds on their side for a 1-0 or 2-1 win, each sitting at 9%. Nonetheless, the allure of value shines brightly on CFR Cluj. With odds of 6.4 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there’s an enticing 82% edge for the shrewd bettor. Although Cluj's chances are rated at a modest 28%, the potential return could tempt those willing to bet on the unpredictable nature of football.

CFR Cluj may not have logic or data as their allies, but the betting market has a soft spot for them, with the odds presenting a tantalizing opportunity for those willing to wager on an upset. In the world of betting, sometimes the numbers reveal a path less traveled, and CFR Cluj's long odds might just be the ticket.

Tromsø

CFR Cluj

Form L

League ranking xG #69xGA #76xT #28xP/match #77Points #70

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Tromsø 44% · Draw 27% · CFR Cluj 28%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - CFR ClujBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 30,62fair 12,83+139 %

Miss

Matchresultat - TromsøBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,61fair 7,75-40 %

Miss

Match prediction: Tromsø – CFR Cluj

Predicted score matrix

CFR Cluj →

Tromsø →

0–06.4%

0–17.1%

0–24.5%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.3%

1–112.1%

1–27.2%

1–32.9%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.6%

2–19.2%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.0%

3–14.9%

3–23.0%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,58–1,22

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.02

Over 2,553%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Tromsø or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Tromsø or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Heine Åsen Larsen to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Heine Åsen Larsen to score29%
David Mikael Edvardsson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · CFR Cluj28% probability@7.40BetsafeEV+111%reference odds
2 · CFR Cluj28% probability@7.40BetssonEV+111%reference odds
2 · CFR Cluj28% probability@7.40NordicbetEV+111%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tromsø	X	2 · CFR Cluj
Bet365	1.53	EV+ 11% 4.10	EV+ 50% 5.25
Betsafe	1.41	EV+ 14% 4.20	EV+ 111% 7.40
Betsson	1.41	EV+ 14% 4.20	EV+ 111% 7.40
Nordicbet	1.41	EV+ 14% 4.20	EV+ 111% 7.40
Pinnacle	1.39	EV+ 21% 4.49	EV+ 78% 6.24

Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Tromsø win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 1.51 to 1.39 (−8%).

1-8 %

65 %60 %

1.51 → 1.39

X+12 %

24 %19 %

4.00 → 4.49

2+14 %

18 %13 %

5.46 → 6.24

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

CFR Cluj

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

CFR Cluj (2–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

CFR Cluj

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

CFR Cluj

The goalkeepers	Tromsø	Ottó Hindrich (CFR Cluj)
Saves	–	2
Save %	–	22%
xG prevented	–	7%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tromsø

Fixtures, form & tips

CFR Cluj

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tromsø vs CFR Cluj according to our model?

The model gives Tromsø a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tromsø 44%, draw 27%, CFR Cluj 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.