NSI vs Lugano: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 2026

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NSILow block & direct

2–2

LuganoPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Lugano (77%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 3.55 (+18 %)

1 · NSI 10%X 13%77% Lugano · 2

13%

77%

Analysis: NSI – Lugano

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Four straight wins tell you everything you need to know about FC Lugano's current form, and the numbers back it up. With an impressive expected goals tally of 2.78 compared to NSI's modest 1.02, it's clear who the bookmakers are favouring. The model gives Lugano a commanding 77% chance of victory, with NSI's slim 10% chance feeling more like a nod to the unpredictable nature of football than any real probability.

FC Lugano stands tall with nine points and an xPoints margin of 5.3, compared to NSI's zeroes across the board. In their sole head-to-head since 2023, Lugano came out on top, but with just one match as a sample, these stats carry less weight than the commanding form Lugano currently boasts. NSI's defensive frailties are glaring; with an xGA of 3.1 per match, they are unlikely to keep Lugano's high-pressing attack at bay for long.

The game is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair, with the over 2.5 goals probability standing at a hefty 73%. Both teams are predicted to score, with a 60% chance. While most likely scorelines suggest a 1-2 or 0-2 result, don't overlook the potential for a goal-fest. The over 4.5 goals market offers notable value here. With odds of 3.95 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model identifies a 31% edge, suggesting this could be a lucrative angle for the bold bettor.

FC Lugano, with their possession-focused, high-pressure style, are primed to exploit NSI's weaknesses. Expect them to win comfortably, likely by a scoreline of 3-1, with the probability of a shot-stopping deluge already factored in. Keep an eye on that over 4.5 market; the value is undeniable.

NSI

Form L

League ranking xG #31xGA #34xT #28xP/match #34Points #31

Lugano

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #4xP/match #9Points #2

Key players

Renato SteffenFxG 0.34 · xT 0.27
Kevin BehrensFxG 1.15 · xT 0.11
Yanis CimignaniCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.20

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: NSI 10% · Draw 13% · Lugano 77%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - LuganoBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,51fair 3,21+9 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NSÍ RunavíkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 18,44fair 25,48-28 %

Miss

Match prediction: NSI – Lugano

Predicted score matrix

Lugano →

NSI →

0–02.4%

0–16.0%

0–28.6%

0–38.0%

0–4+10.9%

1–02.1%

1–16.5%

1–28.8%

1–38.2%

1–4+11.2%

2–01.2%

2–13.2%

2–24.5%

2–34.2%

2–4+5.7%

3–00.4%

3–11.1%

3–21.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.9%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-29%
2.0-29%
3.1-38%
4.0-38%
5.1-17%

Expected goals

1,02–2,78

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,8

18%

216%

320%

419%

5+33%

Under 2,527%

@2.58

Over 2,573%

@1.46EV+7%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lugano to win77%
Over 1.5 goals89%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Lugano to win77%
Over 2.5 goals73%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals73%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.533% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+18%
Over 4.533% probability@3.55BetssonEV+18%
Over 4.533% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+18%

Bookmaker	1 · NSI	X	2 · Lugano
Betsafe	6.40	4.60	EV+ 8% 1.41
Betsson	6.40	4.60	EV+ 8% 1.41
Nordicbet	6.40	4.60	EV+ 8% 1.41
Pinnacle	8.06	5.28	1.28

Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

14 %9 %

8.13 → 8.06

X-1 %

20 %15 %

5.31 → 5.28

20 %

74 %69 %

1.28 → 1.28

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 10/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

NSI 0Draw 0Lugano 1

Goals: 0–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Conference League data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Lugano come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

NSI

Lugano

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

NSI (0–2)

Lugano (8–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

NSI

Lugano

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

NSI

Lugano

The teams in numbers

Performance	NSI	Lugano
Points	0	9
xPoints	0.7	5.3
xG per match	0.67	2.8
xGA per match	3.1	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.07	0.57
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.65	0.1

Playing style	NSI	Lugano
Build-up efficiency	0.19	0.31
Field tilt	0.07	0.91
xT per match	0.62	2.1
xTA per match	3	0.51
Won balls, offensive half	15	30
Pressing intensity	0.31	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.25
Entries into the box per match	4	22
Entries into the box against	34	5
Pass completion %	0.69	0.85
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.8
Passes per match	213	532
Passes against per match	565	212
Switches of play per match	23.3	34.5
Long balls per match	27	32

Set pieces	NSI	Lugano
xG from free kicks	0.29	0.03
Corners per match	3	9
Corners against per match	15.2	2.3
xG per corner	0	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.09
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.57

Other	NSI	Lugano
Throw-in control	0.77	0.81

The goalkeepers	Tom Shiran Amos (NSI)	David Von Ballmoos (Lugano)
Saves	6	7
Save %	75%	88%
xG prevented	69%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins NSI vs Lugano according to our model?

The model gives Lugano a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: NSI 10%, draw 13%, Lugano 77%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.