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    CS
    CSKA 1948 SofiaLow block & direct
    1–1
    (1-2 AET)
    PanathinaikosPanathinaikosPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Panathinaikos (52%)Best value by the model: 1 · CSKA 1948 Sofia @ 5.20 (+8 %)

    CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos · Conference League

    1 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 21%X 27%52% Panathinaikos · 2

    Analysis: CSKA 1948 Sofia – Panathinaikos

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Fifty-two percent. That's the model's nod for Panathinaikos Athens to emerge victorious against CSKA 1948 Sofia, offering a compelling portrait of the odds in this Conference League showdown. The numbers back up the narrative: Panathinaikos have a significant edge, scoring in 15 consecutive league matches, while their expected goals per match (1.5) comfortably surpass CSKA's (1.1). Toss in a tighter defense, with Panathinaikos allowing just 0.86 xGA per match compared to CSKA's 1.1, and the Greek side looks like the smarter bet.

    CSKA 1948 Sofia's low defensive stature and direct style might not hold up well against a Panathinaikos team that thrives on possession control. While the 1-1 scoreline has a 12% chance, the more likely sequences see Panathinaikos edging out a win. The 0-1 outcome, at 11%, aligns with their form and defensive solidity. Despite Sofia hosting, their single point this season looks fragile against Panathinaikos's five.

    Panathinaikos Athens have been consistent, with both their traditional points and expected points (xPoints) outshining CSKA 1948 Sofia. A five-point reality against a 4.2 xPoints suggests they’re playing as expected, if not outperforming slightly. Meanwhile, CSKA’s 1 point against 1.6 xPoints paints a picture of a side struggling to meet even modest expectations.

    The odds of over 2.5 goals sit tantalizingly at 49%, but the defensive strength of Panathinaikos and Sofia's limited offensive firepower suggest this might not be a goal-fest. Instead, the tilt towards Panathinaikos winning 0-1 offers not just a likely outcome but a value angle worth considering. With the bookmakers offering enticing odds, this could be the sharpest play for those eyeing a calculated punt.

    CSKA 1948 Sofia
    Form LL
    League ranking xG #26xGA #11xT #31xP/match #12Points #21
    PanathinaikosPanathinaikos
    Form WLWDD
    League ranking xG #15xGA #7xT #8xP/match #14Points #9
    Key players
    • Giorgos KyriakopoulosLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
    • Andrews TettehFxG 0.39 · xT 0.22
    • Adriano JagušićCMxG 0.35 · xT 0.01
    Score after 90 min
    1 – 1(1-2 AET)
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: CSKA 1948 Sofia 21% · Draw 27% · Panathinaikos 52%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - CSKA 1948 SofiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 17,28fair 16,81+3 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - PanathinaikosBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,08fair 8,15-25 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: CSKA 1948 Sofia – Panathinaikos

    Predicted score matrix

    Panathinaikos →
    CSKA 1948 Sofia →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.4%
    0–110.7%
    0–28.7%
    0–34.5%
    0–4+2.5%
    1
    1–07.3%
    1–112.3%
    1–29.4%
    1–34.9%
    1–4+2.7%
    2
    2–04.2%
    2–16.5%
    2–25.1%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.5%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–12.3%
    3–21.8%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.8%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-29%
    5. 5.0-07%
    Expected goals
    1,08–1,56
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.97
    Over 2,549%
    @2.00

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Panathinaikos to win52%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    33%

    Fair odds

    3.00

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Panathinaikos to win52%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Adriano Jagušić to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Adriano Jagušić to score26%
    • Étienne Amara Camara to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · CSKA 1948 Sofia21% probability@5.20Betfair ExchangeEV+8%reference odds
    • Both teams to score: No47% probability@2.12Betfair ExchangeEV+0%reference odds
    • Under 3.573% probability@1.38Betfair ExchangeEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CSKA 1948 SofiaX2 · Panathinaikos
    Betfair Exchange
    EV+ 8%
    5.20    		3.651.85
    Betsafe4.703.301.75
    Betsson4.703.301.75
    Nordicbet4.703.301.75

    Odds updated 11 Aug, 11:35

    Odds movement

    1+18 %
    23 %18 %

    4.40 → 5.20

    X-4 %
    29 %24 %

    3.80 → 3.65

    20 %
    56 %51 %

    1.85 → 1.85

    Over 2,5+5 %
    52 %47 %

    1.91 → 2.00

    Betfair Exchange · 28 recorded price levels · 08/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Panathinaikos Athens have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Panathinaikos
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Panathinaikos (5–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Panathinaikos
    Giorgos Kyriakopoulos: 195 passningar, xT 0.59KyriakopoulosTriantafyllos Tsapras: 168 passningar, xT 0.45TsaprasÉtienne Amara Camara: 163 passningar, xT 0.26CamaraStefan de Vrij: 155 passningar, xT 0.23VrijPedro Chirivella Burgos: 143 passningar, xT 0.32BurgosAdriano Jagušić: 109 passningar, xT -0.05JagušićAdam Gnezda Cerin: 104 passningar, xT 0.32CerinIgnacio Peña Sotorres: 94 passningar, xT 0.1SotorresRick van Drongelen: 91 passningar, xT 0.09DrongelenSantino Andino Valencia: 62 passningar, xT 0.21ValenciaAnass Zaroury: 55 passningar, xT 0.75Zaroury
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Panathinaikos
    Giorgos Kyriakopoulos: 195 passningar, xT 0.59KyriakopoulosTriantafyllos Tsapras: 168 passningar, xT 0.45TsaprasÉtienne Amara Camara: 163 passningar, xT 0.26CamaraStefan de Vrij: 155 passningar, xT 0.23VrijPedro Chirivella Burgos: 143 passningar, xT 0.32BurgosAdriano Jagušić: 109 passningar, xT -0.05JagušićAdam Gnezda Cerin: 104 passningar, xT 0.32CerinIgnacio Peña Sotorres: 94 passningar, xT 0.1SotorresRick van Drongelen: 91 passningar, xT 0.09DrongelenSantino Andino Valencia: 62 passningar, xT 0.21ValenciaAnass Zaroury: 55 passningar, xT 0.75Zaroury

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCSKA 1948 SofiaPanathinaikos
    Points15
    xPoints1.64.2
    xG per match1.11.5
    xGA per match1.10.86
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.48
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.230.15
    Playing styleCSKA 1948 SofiaPanathinaikos
    Build-up efficiency0.280.33
    Field tilt0.140.76
    xT per match0.511.5
    xTA per match1.20.56
    Won balls, offensive half1825
    Pressing intensity0.260.23
    Pressing efficiency0.20.42
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.130.45
    Entries into the box per match1023
    Entries into the box against269
    Pass completion %0.680.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.610.73
    Passes per match223521
    Passes against per match590216
    Switches of play per match26.628.6
    Long balls per match3338
    Set piecesCSKA 1948 SofiaPanathinaikos
    xG from free kicks0.060.01
    Corners per match7.26.7
    Corners against per match8.25.7
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.53
    OtherCSKA 1948 SofiaPanathinaikos
    Throw-in control0.680.78
    The goalkeepersCSKA 1948 SofiaStefan de Vrij (Panathinaikos)
    Saves–5
    Save %–100%
    xG prevented–100%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    CSKA 1948 Sofia
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Panathinaikos
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos according to our model?

    The model gives Panathinaikos a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CSKA 1948 Sofia 21%, draw 27%, Panathinaikos 52%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.