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    FC KøbenhavnFC KøbenhavnCounter-attacks & crosses
    5–1
    DebrecenDebrecenPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · FC København (74%)Best value by the model: Yes @ 2.10 (+11 %)

    FC København vs Debrecen · Conference League

    1 · FC København 74%X 16%10% Debrecen · 2

    Analysis: FC København – Debrecen

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    74% is a pretty compelling number. That's the model probability of FC Copenhagen coming out on top against Debrecen, and it sets the stage for a match where the home side is expected to dominate. FC Copenhagen's propensity for counter-attacking football and their love of crosses should give them the upper hand against Debrecen's possession-based, high-press strategy. The statistics suggest a likely win for the Danish club, and the expected goals of 2.17 further underline that advantage.

    Head-to-head records can sometimes paint a skewed picture, especially with small samples, and they should weigh less than current form and expected goals. With FC Copenhagen holding a points edge of 7 to Debrecen's 4 and a slight lead in xPoints as well, the Danish side appears to be in the driver's seat. The gap in xG per match is narrow, 1.5 versus 1.4, but the expected goals against (xGA) does show Debrecen with a small defensive advantage at 1.4 compared to Copenhagen's 1.7. Yet, this doesn't seem enough to swing the pendulum for the visitors.

    FC Copenhagen is most likely to win 2-0, the model's favorite scoreline at 11%, closely followed by 2-1 and 1-0 at 10% each. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 59%, suggesting a fair chance of seeing a few goals. However, with Debrecen's defensive setup, the game might not explode into a goal fest. The weather is not a factor, leaving the numbers as they stand—favorable for the home team.

    The sharpest angle for punters lies in the value odds. Bet365 is offering odds of 2.1 for a home win, and with the model assigning a 53% chance of FC Copenhagen triumphing, there's an 11% edge for the bettor. While a long shot, Debrecen's victory is rated at 10% and the odds of 10.0 offer a small edge of 4%. However, the smart money is on the home side, where the numbers and the edge are larger.

    FC KøbenhavnFC København
    Form LLDWW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #22xT #27xP/match #11Points #5
    Key players
    • Robert SilvaLWxG 0.49 · xT 0.06
    • Andreas CorneliusFxG 0.24 · xT -0.02
    • Gabriel PereiraCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
    DebrecenDebrecen
    Form WLDL
    League ranking xG #19xGA #14xT #17xP/match #17Points #10
    Key players
    • Flórián CiblaLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.14
    • Dominik KocsisRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.17
    • Maximilian HofmannCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    5 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: FC København 74% · Draw 16% · Debrecen 10%

    Match prediction: FC København – Debrecen

    Predicted score matrix

    Debrecen →
    FC København →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–13.9%
    0–21.9%
    0–30.6%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–19.3%
    1–24.1%
    1–31.2%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–010.9%
    2–19.8%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–07.9%
    3–17.1%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–07.1%
    4+–16.4%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.1-19%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    2,17–0,91
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    @2.35
    Over 2,559%
    @1.57

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • FC København to win74%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • FC København to win74%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Andreas Evald Cornelius to score41%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Andreas Evald Cornelius to score41%
    • Hamzat Ojediran to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Both teams to score: Yes53% probability@2.10Bet365EV+11%reference odds
    • 2 · Debrecen10% probability@10.00Bet365EV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC KøbenhavnX2 · Debrecen
    Bet3651.225.50
    EV+ 4%
    10.00

    Odds updated 9 Aug, 15:52

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC København
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC København (8–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC København
    Felix Olof Allan Nelson Beijmo: 121 passningar, xT 0.11BeijmoMarcos Lopez: 103 passningar, xT 0.24LopezJunnosuke Suzuki: 90 passningar, xT 0SuzukiMunashe Garananga: 65 passningar, xT -0.06GaranangaAlex Král: 57 passningar, xT 0.26KrálRúnar Alex Rúnarsson: 56 passningar, xT 0.05RúnarssonMohamed Elyounoussi: 55 passningar, xT 0.19ElyounoussiWilliam Clem: 55 passningar, xT -0.04ClemDominik Kotarski: 50 passningar, xT 0.08KotarskiMads Emil Madsen: 43 passningar, xT 0.5MadsenThomas Delaney: 40 passningar, xT 0.06Delaney
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC København
    Felix Olof Allan Nelson Beijmo: 121 passningar, xT 0.11BeijmoMarcos Lopez: 103 passningar, xT 0.24LopezJunnosuke Suzuki: 90 passningar, xT 0SuzukiMunashe Garananga: 65 passningar, xT -0.06GaranangaAlex Král: 57 passningar, xT 0.26KrálRúnar Alex Rúnarsson: 56 passningar, xT 0.05RúnarssonMohamed Elyounoussi: 55 passningar, xT 0.19ElyounoussiWilliam Clem: 55 passningar, xT -0.04ClemDominik Kotarski: 50 passningar, xT 0.08KotarskiMads Emil Madsen: 43 passningar, xT 0.5MadsenThomas Delaney: 40 passningar, xT 0.06Delaney

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFC KøbenhavnDebrecen
    Points74
    xPoints4.94
    xG per match1.51.4
    xGA per match1.71.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.3
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.14
    Playing styleFC KøbenhavnDebrecen
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.280.55
    xT per match0.650.95
    xTA per match1.70.93
    Won balls, offensive half2427
    Pressing intensity0.250.22
    Pressing efficiency0.240.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.28
    Entries into the box per match1012
    Entries into the box against1311
    Pass completion %0.760.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.69
    Passes per match290304
    Passes against per match416292
    Switches of play per match22.221.7
    Long balls per match3433
    Set piecesFC KøbenhavnDebrecen
    xG from free kicks00.04
    Corners per match3.36.9
    Corners against per match7.65.3
    xG per corner0.070.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.590.5
    OtherFC KøbenhavnDebrecen
    Throw-in control0.760.7
    The goalkeepersDominik Kotarski (FC København)Debrecen
    Saves5–
    Save %83%–
    xG prevented36%–
    Claims0 (0%)–

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC København
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Debrecen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC København vs Debrecen according to our model?

    The model gives FC København a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC København 74%, draw 16%, Debrecen 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.