01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Twente or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Conference League22°11 km/h
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DAC 1904Possession & high press3–3
TwentePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Twente (38%)Best value by the model: 1 · DAC 1904 @ 5.55 (+104 %)
DAC 1904 – Twente · Conference League
1 · DAC 1904 37%X 25%38% Twente · 2
37%
25%
38%
Analysis: DAC 1904 – Twente
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
DAC 1904 holds a slim historical edge in points and xPoints over Twente Enschede FC, but the model paints a picture that leans towards Twente. The balance is razor-thin: DAC 1904 stands at 37%, just shy of Twente's 38% probability. Yet, with a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome at 12%, there’s no shortage of tension in this matchup. The playing styles mirror each other, both teams favoring possession and the high press. This could lead to a tactical stalemate, though the expected goals suggest a slight edge to Twente, with DAC 1904 at 1.39 and Twente at 1.48.
Twente Enschede FC’s xG per match of 3.1 dwarfs DAC 1904's 1.1, and they boast a more disciplined defense, conceding a mere 0.52 xGA compared to DAC's 1.5. This defensive solidity, combined with their superior xG, hints at their capacity to edge past their opponents. However, DAC 1904's home advantage and the fact they've outperformed Twente in actual points should not be overlooked. The weather, absent from the facts, leaves the door open for goals, aligning with the 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
Twente Enschede FC’s solitary head-to-head with DAC 1904 ended in a draw. Although it’s a small sample and not particularly telling, it reflects the evenly matched nature of these sides. With DAC 1904 yet to lose to Twente, history slightly favors them, albeit tenuously.
For the sharp-eyed punter, DAC 1904 at home offers tantalizing value. With odds of 5.53 at Pinnacle, and rated at 37% by the model, there's a whopping 103% edge waiting to be exploited. While Twente may be the marginal favorite, a savvy bet on DAC 1904 could be the move, especially given the lucrative odds in a clash this evenly poised.
DAC 1904Form WWD
League ranking xG #23xGA #16xT #23xP/match #19Points #6
Key players
- Ammar RamadanLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.15
- Abdoulaye GueyeFxG 0.37 · xT 0.00
- Tsotne KapanadzeRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
TwenteForm D
League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #15xP/match #1Points #25
Key players
- Marko PjacaRWxG 0.06 · xT -0.05
- Robin PröpperCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Aske Emil Berg AdelgaardLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Final score
3 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: DAC 1904 37% · Draw 25% · Twente 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - DAC Dunajská StredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,21fair 9,80+45 %
MissMatchresultat - FC TwenteBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,40fair 8,60-49 %
MissMatch prediction: DAC 1904 – Twente
Predicted score matrix
Twente →
DAC 1904 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–18.1%
0–26.2%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.6%
1–112.0%
1–28.6%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.5%
2–18.1%
2–26.0%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.7%
3–22.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
1,39–1,48
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.22EV+1%
Over 2,555%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Twente or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Wout François Maria Weghorst to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Giorgi Gagua to score28%
- Ramiz Larbi Zerrouki to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · DAC 190437% probability@5.55PinnacleEV+104%
- 1 · DAC 190437% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+73%
- 1 · DAC 190437% probability@4.70BetssonEV+73%
| Bookmaker | 1 · DAC 1904 | X | 2 · Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 73% 4.70 | 3.85 | 1.62 |
| Betsson | EV+ 73% 4.70 | 3.85 | 1.62 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 73% 4.70 | 3.85 | 1.62 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 104% 5.55 | EV+ 8% 4.31 | 1.46 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 11:35
Odds movement
10 %
19 %14 %
5.53 → 5.55
X+2 %
24 %19 %
4.23 → 4.31
2-1 %
65 %60 %
1.47 → 1.46
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 12/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesDAC 1904 0Draw 1Twente 0
Goals: 0–0
Head-to-head based on Conference League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
DAC 1904
Twente
DAC 1904 (4–6)
Twente (6–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
DAC 1904
Twente
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
DAC 1904
Twente
The teams in numbers
| Performance | DAC 1904 | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 1 |
| xPoints | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 3.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.52 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| Playing style | DAC 1904 | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.83 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.25 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 4 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 373 | 500 |
| Passes against per match | 348 | 259 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.8 | 58.6 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 55 |
| Set pieces | DAC 1904 | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.77 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 7 |
| Corners against per match | 3 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.8 |
| Other | DAC 1904 | Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Aljaž Ivačič (DAC 1904) | Lars Unnerstall (Twente) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 4 |
| Save % | 50% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 25% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins DAC 1904 vs Twente according to our model?
The model gives Twente a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: DAC 1904 37%, draw 25%, Twente 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.