Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202622°47,6 mm9 km/h

LuganoPossession & high press

Maccabi Tel Aviv

The model's lean: 1 · Lugano (60%)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Lugano 60%X 21%19% Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2

60%

21%

19%

Analysis: Lugano – Maccabi Tel Aviv

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

60% is a compelling number, and it’s the model's clear assessment of FC Lugano's chances against Maccabi Tel Aviv. This Swiss side is riding high, unbeaten in their last five league matches, and that momentum is expected to carry into this Conference League clash. The expected goals tally of 1.99 to 1.07 further underscores Lugano's dominance at least on paper, painting this as a contest where the home side should prevail.

FC Lugano's recent league form offers a sturdy backbone for those pondering a punt. With a probability of 60% placed on their victory, the odds provided by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 2.02 present a 21% edge. It's the kind of value that doesn't show up every day, a nod to the analytical prowess of number crunching.

A 59% chance of over 2.5 goals suggests an open game, but with 45.8 mm of rain forecast, conditions might play a spoiler. Wet weather often acts as a great equalizer, suppressing goal-scoring flair and sharpening defensive instincts. Yet, the numbers suggest that FC Lugano possesses the firepower to navigate this challenge, with most likely scorelines being 2-1 and 2-0, both favoring the home team.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, with just a 19% chance of victory and a projected one goal, look like they’ll have their work cut out. Although the 1-1 scoreline shares a 10% likelihood, such outcomes often lean on the precarious balance of a single defensive lapse or a moment of individual brilliance.

For those seeking sharper angles, the value at odds of 2.02 for a Lugano win cannot be ignored. The model's nod towards a 60% probability makes this the standout bet, offering punters a statistical edge that smart money will find hard to resist.

Lugano

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #2xP/match #9Points #3

Key players

Renato SteffenFxG 0.29 · xT 0.28
Yanis CimignaniRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.21
Kevin BehrensFxG 1.24 · xT 0.08

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Form WWWWL

Match prediction: Lugano – Maccabi Tel Aviv

Predicted score matrix

Maccabi Tel Aviv →

Lugano →

0–05.0%

0–14.7%

0–22.7%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.0%

1–110.3%

1–25.4%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.3%

2–19.9%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.1%

3–16.6%

3–23.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.8%

4+–15.2%

4+–22.8%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

1,99–1,07

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@1.85

Over 2,559%

@1.85EV+9%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lugano to win60%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lugano to win60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Renato Steffen to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Renato Steffen to score26%
Anto Grgic to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lugano60% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
1 · Lugano60% probability@1.98BetssonEV+19%reference odds
1 · Lugano60% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lugano	X	2 · Maccabi Tel Aviv
Betsafe	EV+ 19% 1.98	3.40	3.45
Betsson	EV+ 19% 1.98	3.40	3.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 19% 1.98	3.40	3.45

Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Lugano win since 16 August — the odds have shortened from 2.12 to 1.98 (−7%).

1-7 %

47 %42 %

2.12 → 1.98

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.40

2+13 %

31 %26 %

3.05 → 3.45

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.85 → 1.85

Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lugano

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lugano (10–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lugano

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lugano

The goalkeepers	David Von Ballmoos (Lugano)	Maccabi Tel Aviv
Saves	9	–
Save %	75%	–
xG prevented	28%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv according to our model?

The model gives Lugano a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lugano 60%, draw 21%, Maccabi Tel Aviv 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.