Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202630°21 km/h

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Hajduk Split

Raków CzęstochowaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Hajduk Split (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Raków Częstochowa @ 3.45 (+12 %)

1 · Hajduk Split 40%X 27%32% Raków Częstochowa · 2

40%

27%

32%

Analysis: Hajduk Split – Raków Częstochowa

Oscar Nilsson · 18 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Rakow Czestochowa's surprising 32% chance of victory might draw your eye, especially with the enticing odds of 3.25 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This translates to a valuable 5% edge, according to the model. While Hajduk Split holds the slight edge with a 40% probability of triumph, Rakow's value is hard to overlook for those favouring the underdog.

Hajduk Split will be banking on their slight model advantage to make the most of their home conditions, but the expected goals paint a different picture. With Hajduk Split at 1.34 and Rakow Czestochowa narrowly edging them at 1.39, it's clear there's little to separate the sides in terms of attacking potential. Both teams finding the net seems more than plausible, given the 56% likelihood, leaving the door wide open for a competitive contest.

The most likely scorelines are tantalizingly close, adding weight to the argument for a tight match. A 1-1 draw sits at a 12% probability, slightly more probable than either a 0-1 or 1-2 outcome in favour of Rakow. These figures lean towards a balanced encounter, where neither team is likely to dominate proceedings comprehensively.

Hajduk Split might have the home turf, but Rakow Czestochowa's away value, tempting odds, and competitive expected goals make them an attractive option for those willing to bet against the grain. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 51%, suggesting a slight tilt towards a goal-fest, although the numbers don't scream either way.

Ultimately, the sharpest angle here is Rakow's value at 3.25. It's a calculated gamble, backed by a model that sees just enough potential in the visitors to make those odds more appealing than they may initially appear.

Hajduk Split

Form DL

Raków Częstochowa

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #28xGA #8xT #37xP/match #18Points #8

Key players

Stratos SvarnasCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
Patryk MakuchFxG 0.13 · xT 0.05
Jonatan Braut BrunesFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Hajduk Split – Raków Częstochowa

Predicted score matrix

Raków Częstochowa →

Hajduk Split →

0–06.9%

0–18.7%

0–26.3%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.4%

1–112.5%

1–28.4%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.9%

2–18.2%

2–25.7%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.6%

3–13.7%

3–22.5%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,34–1,39

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.88

Over 2,551%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Hajduk Split or draw (1X)62%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Hajduk Split or draw (1X)62%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Rokas Pukštas to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Karol Struski to score25%
Oskar Repka to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Raków Częstochowa32% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Raków Częstochowa32% probability@3.45BetssonEV+12%reference odds
2 · Raków Częstochowa32% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hajduk Split	X	2 · Raków Częstochowa
Betsafe	2.02	3.30	EV+ 12% 3.45
Betsson	2.02	3.30	EV+ 12% 3.45
Nordicbet	2.02	3.30	EV+ 12% 3.45

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

47 %42 %

2.05 → 2.02

X-3 %

30 %25 %

3.40 → 3.30

2+6 %

30 %25 %

3.25 → 3.45

Over 2,5+6 %

55 %50 %

1.72 → 1.82

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Raków Częstochowa

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Raków Częstochowa (16–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Raków Częstochowa

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Raków Częstochowa

The goalkeepers	Hajduk Split	Oliwier Zych (Raków Częstochowa)
Saves	–	25
Save %	–	83%
xG prevented	–	71%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa according to our model?

The model gives Hajduk Split a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hajduk Split 40%, draw 27%, Raków Częstochowa 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.