Hearts vs Rapid Wien: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202614°0,6 mm17 km/h

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Hearts

Rapid WienPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Rapid Wien (40%)

1 · Hearts 32%X 28%40% Rapid Wien · 2

32%

28%

40%

Analysis: Hearts – Rapid Wien

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Four straight wins have SK Rapid Vienna strutting into this Conference League clash. They carry the momentum of a team that knows how to close out games. Hearts face an uphill battle, and the numbers back that up: a mere 32% chance of winning, as the model leans slightly towards the Austrian visitors at 40%. These aren't overwhelming odds, but they do suggest Rapid Vienna have a slight upper hand.

The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% implies a tight contest, but the expected goals tell a slightly different story. SK Rapid Vienna edge Hearts with an expected goals tally of 1.37 versus 1.23. While the margin is narrow, it does hint at the Austrians' ability to find that crucial goal more often than their Scottish counterparts. The game's context—played under a steady 13.4°C with rain—also favors a more cautious approach, potentially keeping the scoreline low.

Hearts, with the home advantage, might have a chance to surprise, but the 10% probability for a 0-1 away win cannot be ignored. With rain potentially suppressing the goal fest, eyes will be on the midfield battles and defensive discipline. The over/under discussion tilts slightly under with a 48% chance of more than 2.5 goals, but this match feels like it could end with fewer fireworks, aligning with the likely scorelines.

For those with a betting inclination, there's clear value in backing SK Rapid Vienna at odds of 2.65 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model identifies a 6% edge here, a significant number for the astute punter. By the final whistle, a 0-1 outcome could very well be the story—a narrative shaped as much by the rain as by the relentless form of SK Rapid Vienna.

Hearts

Form WLLLD

Rapid Wien

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #5xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Jonas Antonius AuerLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.39
Louis SchaubCDMxG 0.66 · xT 0.02
Bendeguz BollaRWBxG 0.35 · xT 0.61

Match prediction: Hearts – Rapid Wien

Predicted score matrix

Rapid Wien →

Hearts →

0–07.8%

0–19.8%

0–26.9%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.5%

1–08.8%

1–112.9%

1–28.6%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.6%

2–17.7%

2–25.3%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.3%

3–13.2%

3–22.2%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,23–1,37

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.98EV+3%

Over 2,548%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rapid Wien or draw (X2)67%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rapid Wien or draw (X2)67%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Ercan Kara to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Ercan Kara to score27%
Akoua Romeo Amané to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Rapid Wien40% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
2 · Rapid Wien40% probability@2.80BetssonEV+12%reference odds
2 · Rapid Wien40% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hearts	X	2 · Rapid Wien
Betsafe	2.25	3.40	EV+ 12% 2.80
Betsson	2.25	3.40	EV+ 12% 2.80
Nordicbet	2.25	3.40	EV+ 12% 2.80

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:35

Odds movement

1+5 %

48 %38 %

2.15 → 2.25

X0 %

32 %22 %

3.40 → 3.40

2-5 %

36 %26 %

2.95 → 2.80

Over 2,5+2 %

59 %49 %

1.68 → 1.72

Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

SK Rapid Vienna come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rapid Wien

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rapid Wien (15–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rapid Wien

The goalkeepers	Hearts	Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien)
Saves	–	4
Save %	–	50%
xG prevented	–	28%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hearts vs Rapid Wien according to our model?

The model gives Rapid Wien a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hearts 32%, draw 28%, Rapid Wien 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.