Midtjylland vs Rijeka: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202615°1,0 mm12 km/h

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Midtjylland

RijekaPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Midtjylland (60%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.10 (+7 %)

1 · Midtjylland 60%X 21%19% Rijeka · 2

60%

21%

19%

Analysis: Midtjylland – Rijeka

Anna Karlsson · 18 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

With Midtjylland's victory probabilities standing strong at 60%, the Danish side seems to have the upper hand when they face HNK Rijeka in the Conference League. Despite this, the match promises tight margins, with a 1-0 scoreline topping the model’s predictions at a 13% likelihood. This nods towards a closely contested affair, especially when Midtjylland's expected goals tally of 1.79 outstrips Rijeka's 0.84, hinting at dominance without a deluge of goals.

Midtjylland, with their solid form, will look to exploit their home advantage, while Rijeka, lurking with a 19% win probability, could very well throw a spanner in the works. The small sample size of head-to-head encounters doesn’t give us much to work with, but current form and expected goals provide clarity. Rijeka's travel tenacity might be understated, but they’ll need more than grit to topple the odds.

The numbers suggest a leaning towards a low-scoring encounter, with the goal line over/under set at an intriguing 49% for over 2.5 goals. The fact that both teams to score rests at 48% further emphasizes the likelihood of a cagey contest. The weather isn't playing a role here, so we can focus purely on the tactical setups and quality on the pitch.

If you’re hunting for value, the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.1 with Paddy Power offers a 7% edge according to the model's 51% rating. It’s a bet that aligns with both expected goals and likely scorelines. For those with a penchant for risk, Rijeka pulling off an upset at 5.4 with Betsafe carries a 5% edge, though it feels more like a long shot.

Given the probabilities and trends, Midtjylland's narrow 1-0 victory seems the most plausible outcome. Yet, the sharper betting angle remains in backing the under 2.5 goals, a wager that marries prudence with profit potential.

Midtjylland

Form LLWDD

Rijeka

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #57xGA #15xT #61xP/match #23Points #14

Key players

Daniel William Kwabena Adu-AdjeiFxG 0.31 · xT 0.00
Toni FrukLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.10
Ante MajstorovićCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Midtjylland – Rijeka

Predicted score matrix

Rijeka →

Midtjylland →

0–07.5%

0–15.7%

0–22.5%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.5%

1–111.2%

1–24.6%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.5%

2–19.7%

2–24.1%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.9%

3–15.8%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.6%

4+–13.9%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.2-012%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,79–0,84

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.10EV+1%

Over 2,549%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Midtjylland to win60%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Midtjylland to win60%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Cho Gue-Sung to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Cho Gue-Sung to score33%
Branko Pavić to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.551% probability@2.10Paddy PowerEV+7%reference odds
Under 0.57% probability@14.00Paddy PowerEV+5%reference odds
2 · Rijeka19% probability@5.40BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Midtjylland	X	2 · Rijeka
Betsafe	1.58	3.60	EV+ 5% 5.40
Betsson	1.58	3.60	EV+ 5% 5.40
Nordicbet	1.58	3.60	EV+ 5% 5.40
Paddy Power	1.60	3.80	4.50

Odds updated 18 Aug, 14:35

Odds movement

1-4 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.58

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.60

2+16 %

22 %17 %

4.65 → 5.40

Over 2,5+4 %

57 %52 %

1.65 → 1.72

Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rijeka

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Rijeka (11–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rijeka

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rijeka

The goalkeepers	Midtjylland	Martin Zlomislić (Rijeka)
Saves	–	32
Save %	–	84%
xG prevented	–	72%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Midtjylland vs Rijeka according to our model?

The model gives Midtjylland a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Midtjylland 60%, draw 21%, Rijeka 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.