PAOK vs Brann: Prediction & Odds (20 Aug 2026)

Conference League20 August 202628°17 km/h

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PAOK

Brann

The model's lean: 1 · PAOK (60%)

1 · PAOK 60%X 22%18% Brann · 2

60%

22%

18%

Analysis: PAOK – Brann

Sofia Andersson · 18 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

PAOK Thessaloniki enters this Conference League clash with a solid 60% probability of victory, a testament to their form and the formidable atmosphere at their home ground. The expected goals (xG) suggest a significant edge too, pegged at 1.90 for PAOK against Brann's 1.03. This gap sets the stage for what should be a controlled yet competitive affair, with PAOK likely dictating the pace.

Brann, with only an 18% chance of winning, faces an uphill battle. While their overall season form shows resilience, the numbers suggest they may struggle to break down a well-drilled PAOK side. It’s also noteworthy that the most likely scorelines—1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), and 1-0 (10%)—reflect the narrow margins by which PAOK has been edging matches, suggesting competence in grinding out results rather than blowing opponents away.

The model leans towards a PAOK victory, emphasizing a subtle edge in attacking output and defensive solidity. Despite the 56% chance of over 2.5 goals, the projected xG and potential for a tightly-knit contest hint that this might not be the goal-fest some might expect. Weather, if relevant, isn't a factor dampening this prediction, allowing for pure form and tactics to dictate the tempo.

Brann's defensive vulnerabilities, especially away from home, might be exposed here, yet their ability to find the net remains—55% on both teams to score aligns with a likely PAOK win but not without a scare. Considering all these factors, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of PAOK feels like the sweet spot, balancing PAOK's home prowess against Brann's potential to snag at least one goal.

For bettors, the sharpest play appears to be on the side of PAOK Thessaloniki outright, with their 60% win probability reflecting solid value. For those who prefer goals, leaning slightly towards over 2.5 goals at 56% could offer a compelling angle, especially if Brann can muster a surprise goal.

PAOK

Form WLWLL

Key players

Giannis KonstanteliasFxG 0.35 · xT 0.20
Theocharis TsingarasCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Andrija ŽivkovićRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.29

Brann

Form LWDD

Key players

Felix MyhreCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.17
Bård FinneFxG 0.24 · xT 0.07
Sivert NilsenCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: PAOK – Brann

Predicted score matrix

Brann →

PAOK →

0–05.6%

0–15.2%

0–22.8%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.8%

1–110.7%

1–25.4%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.1%

3–16.3%

3–23.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.5%

4+–14.6%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-010%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,90–1,03

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.25

Over 2,556%

@1.78

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

PAOK to win60%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

PAOK to win60%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Brandon Thomas Llamas to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Niklas Fernando Nygård Castro to score29%
Soualiho Meïté to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · PAOK60% probability@1.70BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
1 · PAOK60% probability@1.70BetssonEV+2%reference odds
1 · PAOK60% probability@1.70NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · PAOK	X	2 · Brann
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 1.70	3.45	4.65
Betsson	EV+ 2% 1.70	3.45	4.65
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 1.70	3.45	4.65
Paddy Power	1.53	4.00	5.00

Odds updated 18 Aug, 16:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 14 August — the odds have shortened from 2.22 to 1.92 (−14%).

1+8 %

61 %51 %

1.58 → 1.70

X-10 %

30 %20 %

3.85 → 3.45

2-5 %

24 %14 %

4.90 → 4.65

Over 2,5+13 %

60 %50 %

1.58 → 1.78

Betsson · 34 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

PAOK (34–18)

Brann (8–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PAOK

Brann

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PAOK

Brann

The goalkeepers	Dominik Kotarski (PAOK)	Mathias Dyngeland (Brann)
Saves	46	20
Save %	72%	74%
xG prevented	54%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PAOK vs Brann according to our model?

The model gives PAOK a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PAOK 60%, draw 22%, Brann 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.