RFS vs Jablonec: Prediction & Odds (13 Aug 2026)

Conference League13 August 202616°0,1 mm18 km/h

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RFS

Jablonec

The model's lean: 1 · RFS (76%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.70 (+57 %)

1 · RFS 76%X 15%9% Jablonec · 2

76%

15%

Analysis: RFS – Jablonec

Oscar Nilsson · 8 August 2026 · How the predictions work

RFS enter this clash with a commanding 76% probability of victory, making them clear favorites against an FK Jablonec squad given just a 9% chance by the model. RFS's dominance is underscored by their expected goals: a hefty 2.50 compared to Jablonec's paltry 0.83. These figures paint a stark picture of where the match is likely to head — RFS dictating the terms, with Jablonec on the backfoot for much of the contest.

FK Jablonec, on the other hand, may cling to the hope of an upset, but the numbers offer them little respite. Their 9% win probability is almost a token gesture, and while football is unpredictable, the data heaps its weight against them. With a small head-to-head sample size, trends from this matchup are weak at best, urging us to focus more on the current form and expected outcomes rather than past encounters.

RFS's offensive prowess suggests a scoreline leaning towards a 2-0 or 3-0 win, with a 2-1 result also in the mix. The over/under 2.5 line sits at 65%, favoring a game with multiple goals. However, with the weather absent from the equation, the conditions shouldn't hinder scoring, thus reinforcing the expectation of an offensive display, particularly from RFS.

The betting markets have noted this lopsided scenario with value odds popping up for those eager to back goals. For those willing to place a bet, RFS to win 2-0 stands out as an intriguing proposition. However, the sharpest angle comes via Bet365, offering attractive odds on over 2.5 goals given the significant 65% chance of this outcome occurring. It’s not a certainty — nothing in betting ever is — but in a match where one team is poised to flex its muscle, backing goals seems to be the most calculated approach.

RFS

Form WWLL

Jablonec

Match prediction: RFS – Jablonec

Predicted score matrix

Jablonec →

RFS →

0–03.8%

0–12.8%

0–21.2%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.8%

1–17.6%

1–23.1%

1–30.8%

1–4+0.2%

2–011.2%

2–19.3%

2–23.8%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.4%

3–17.7%

3–23.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–010.6%

4+–18.7%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.3-09%
3.2-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,50–0,83

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,535%

@1.66

Over 2,565%

@2.08EV+34%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

RFS to win76%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

RFS to win76%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Jānis Ikaunieks to score49%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Jānis Ikaunieks to score49%
Richard Sedláček to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.542% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+57%
Over 3.542% probability@3.70BetssonEV+57%
Over 3.542% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+57%

Bookmaker	1 · RFS	X	2 · Jablonec
Betsafe	EV+ 47% 1.92	3.20	3.95
Betsson	EV+ 47% 1.92	3.20	3.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 47% 1.92	3.20	3.95
Pinnacle	EV+ 41% 1.85	3.57	3.31

Odds updated 11 Aug, 04:53

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a RFS win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.08 to 1.85 (−11%).

1-11 %

48 %43 %

2.08 → 1.85

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.62 → 3.57

2+15 %

32 %27 %

2.89 → 3.31

Over 2,5-2 %

47 %42 %

2.11 → 2.06

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 11/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

When goals are scored and conceded — 2023

RFS (6–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

RFS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

RFS

The goalkeepers	Pāvels Šteinbors (RFS)	Jablonec
Saves	4	–
Save %	57%	–
xG prevented	21%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins RFS vs Jablonec according to our model?

The model gives RFS a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: RFS 76%, draw 15%, Jablonec 9%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.